[5 Nov 2009 | 4 Comments ]
How to Spot Market Turning Points

Flexibility in the Market
That’s the secret to market timing. Just as yoga is great for keeping your body flexible and strong, averaging in and out of markets is the way to maintain a flexible and strong portfolio. Of course the real secret is making lots of predictions, then you can’t fail but to nail those turns!

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Off Topic »

[20 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

Or so ANZ boldly pronounce at the top of their latest paper spam.
Have the repeaters of that delusion ever been into a book shop? There are scores of manuals on motherhood. When coined the phase was accurate and insightful, now it’s borderline ignorant. If you want to be a better parent then read the manual. Instinct, you must be kidding ANZ.
If you want one tip then speak to your kids as you’d like them to speak to others and like you wish to be spoken to. As someone said do unto others as …

Commentary »

[20 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]
Biota’s Market, Influenza and Rhinovirus up close. Plus AGM

If you haven’t checked out the cool cell size visualisation tool I linked the other day, then this is your reminder. [Use the slider Luke, use the slider...the one at the bottom of the linked page.]
Plus it’s great to see Biota two primary targets in the antiviral world, the influenza virus and rhinovirus.

Biota’s 2009 AGM
Summaries of the AGM were posted on Hot Copper [subscription required]. I’ve posted some snips at the bottom.
Extra bits I noted

The CEO, Peter Cook, side stepped a question on the patent expiration date of Lani. He alluded to that …

News »

[19 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

2x leverage wasn’t enough so we got 3x, now Kelly Capital are taking it to an extreme with 100x leverage. It’s good to see someone at the SEC has a sense of humour, Ben Meriwether is a funny guy. Of course the powers that be at Kelly Capital also appear to be full of mirth calling their leveraged ETFs, SINK and SOAR.
“These are intended for attentive traders only,” says Kelly Capital chief executive officer Jason Kelly. “The extreme leverage employed will cause both funds to go bankrupt within the course of most trading …

Commentary »

[19 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

M2 Telecommunications have soared since I first mentioned them in this post in July Getting Down From My Pulpit. It’s a shame I didn’t get down from my pulpit, analyse and buy M2 sooner than September M2 Telecommunications Analysis and Valuation.
I shan’t complain. I own an attractive well managed company with recurring revenues which still appears undervalued. Pipe Network’s buyout has buoyed the sector and propelled M2 to new highs. Those taking a closer look at the telecommunications sector should see the value in M2. Speaking of Pipe, I was mentioned in …

Uncategorized »

[18 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]
OT: Sell Size and Scale

Paul Kedrosky highlighted this amazing visualisation last week. It’s quite amazing and got two wows out of two from my kids. Use the slider at the bottom and say after me “ohh-ahhh”.

Analysis »

[18 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

Continuing on from yesterday’s Lynch theme of Buy What You Know I thought I’d look at the industry I work in. Interactive Brokers is my primary broker for the Investment Trust I manage. I’ve followed IBKR’s fortunes since its IPO in May 2007 at $30.01 per share and its recommendation by Jeff Fischer then at Complete Growth.
IBKR comprises two businesses, market making and brokerage. It’s been a rocky road with market making growth accelerating at first and now plummeting; meanwhile, brokerage has continued to shine and appears set to grow at 20% for a few more …

Beginners, Better Investor »

[17 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]
Peter Lynch Video – Buy What You Know

October 1982 TV debut of Peter Lynch.
Buy What You Know
“Average investor is out there in some industry…and they’re going to see those industries turn and they’re not going to buy those stocks…they have a big edge… they are months ahead of me”
Common mistake..buying a stock as it has fallen from X to two thirds or half of X. Beware bottom fishing
Peter Lynch nails the edge most amateur investors enjoy, but seldom capitalise on. Most people have an edge in the industry they work in. Funny thing is most of the money is controlled by people who …

News »

[11 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

11  Administrators’ Opinion
the option of the administration ending is clearly not viable for the GS Group.
At this stage, as no DOCA proposal has been put forward for consideration, and no such proposal is pending to the best of our knowledge, this option falls away and cannot be considered.
The only remaining option available to creditors is to wind up each of the GS Group Companies.
Based on the above, it is therefore our opinion and recommendation that creditors should resolve that each of the GS Group Companies is wound up.
See Final Report for Great …

Analysis »

[11 Nov 2009 | No Comment | ]

The AGM is tomorrow, Thursday Nov 12.  100 St Kilda Rd 10.00am pdf
It will be good to see the new Chairman in action. Plus the crowd should be in a jollier mood. An update on pipeline, negotiations, the business and forecasts would be good.
Hunter Hall Selling
I read at least one comment on the timing of Hunter Hall selling down and announcing. Here is the relevant section. HHL reduced their Biota holding from 13.13% to 12.10% over a five week period and then reported due to 1b.
Over time we can expect …

Advanced, Better Investor, Education »

[10 Nov 2009 | One Comment | ]
Go Low Sweet Balance Sheet, No Alpha and Psychology

Three great points; another reason to concentrate on EV instead of market cap, cash is more a risk than an asset and show us the money. Stop hording our cash! Graham recommending putting the dividend payout to a vote each year and management having to justify any capital expenditures. I implemented capital investment management in, gosh at least a dozen companies, and truth be told not one really had a tight grasp of or even a good process for managing their major expenditures.