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Articles Archive for September 2008

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[23 Sep 2008 | One Comment | ]

Only got five minutes for your first pass? So let’s see how GE stacks up.
We’re approaching those early 2003 lows despite earnings being 54% higher. This GE 16 year BMW chart shows there is plenty of room to run when sentiment changes.
Let’s quickly check some other metrics as all of the following are at long term lows:

Price to book
Price to free cash flow
Price to earnings
Price to sales

Purchases »

[23 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]

There is one important thing. Buy Fear Sell Greed. With little time for detailed research (bad move Dean) but a lot of money to put to work in the Fusion Investing Fund, the fund just bought 1,000 ANZ shares at $18.10. While Westpac Bank would have been a more conservative investment the greater potential of ANZ and my better understanding of ANZ swung my decision.
Fund Performance to Date

4 of 6 positions (67%) outperforming the index.
The -0.6% return compares favourably to the -15.4% for the ASX200.
Fund dips into red for second …

Commentary »

[23 Sep 2008 | One Comment | ]

Can you hear it?
Two charts to start, ANZ one and five year charts.

the one year chart still captures the high. I thought it would be good to keep a snapshot of that.
four steps forward one giant leap back.
and now the VIX, hitting peaks not seen in…gosh how many years is it? 5 or 6?

a few days back VIX and More commented that “we have a new line in the sand right now, a VIX of 42.16 (and SPX of 1133).”
as VIX said we have extreme fear when the VIX continues …

Commentary »

[22 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]

In 2006, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted “Everyone knows that a policy of bailouts will increase their number.” This week, Congress is being asked to hastily consider a monstrous bailout plan on a scale nearly equivalent to the existing balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. Read the rest of Hussman’s Open Letter to the U.S. Congress Regarding the Current Financial Crisis.

Commentary »

[18 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]

These are the best times to be an accumulating investor. Volatile, wild times. Australian Banks were slaughtered today. Macquarie Group (MQG) and National Australia Bank NAB down heavily.
The Fusion Investing Fund was close to buying today and was hoping to buy Westpac under $21. ANZ also looked good at close to $15, but as the Fund already has a position in ANZ and it is slightly higher risk than Westpac, diversification into Westpac seemed like a better strategy. By the time this meltdown is over the fund would like positions …

Commentary »

[15 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]

John Hussman discusses Lehman and how “Only the Stock and Bond Holders Should Expect Losses (Not Customers)”. Read the full weekly market comment here.
It’s important to recognize that the timing of the stress at Lehman is not a coincidence independent of the Fannie and Freddie bailout. Rather, the U.S. government essentially sent an information signal that highly leveraged financial institutions were insolvent. Next to Bear Stearns, Lehman had the highest gross leverage multiple on the street (the continuing problem is that several others are quite close). Last week, Lehman reported …

Commentary »

[11 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]
Guess this company

A who’s who of the value investing world plus numerous newsletters publishers are all hanging their hats on this company which you can now buy cheaper than all of them.

Analysis »

[11 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]

Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM)
While Flight of the Choncords may be my current favourite purveyors of mirth, I do get a good laugh when I read “analysis” like this by Steve Biggs from Zacks.
Akamai is currently trading at its 52-week low price. The company’s P/E ratio of 15.2x is based on our 2008 EPS estimate of $1.29 and 4.2x our 2008 revenue estimate of $4.69 per share. Although the valuation has fallen to the low-end of historic levels, we would not be the buyers of the stock given the risk of …

Analysis »

[11 Sep 2008 | No Comment | ]
Chipotle one year review

It was almost a year ago when I dared to call Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) overpriced. So how has that call worked out?

Commentary »

[10 Sep 2008 | One Comment | ]

Some random thoughts on investing on margin in response to this thread on TMF.
I use margin and my portfolio waxes and wanes between 50-150% invested, over multiple year time frames. I am currently slightly net cash in my personal accounts.
I don’t think now is a good time to be on margin as there is an above normal risk of it bitting you on the bum. I use margin when the probability of success is high and risk is low. The time I like to use margin is when most people …