On Friday I embarked on buying the Ultra Bull Fund ULPIX via dollar cost averaging. If I discover information that points me to a particular sector I may invest some of my averaging into that.
[Update: The Ultra Funds are only good for short term trades. They are appalling bad over the long term and should not be used for for long term positions]

My current beliefs

• This quarter reports will be bad, especially amongst discretionary companies like retailers. Next quarter will be even worse. Every retailer I know says that business totally sucks and that is here in Australia where we are in better shape than most countries.
• We have started the bottoming process.
• We are likely to get a sizable bounce in the coming weeks, but the lows will be retested over the coming months.
• The huge sudden spike in the USD will have a massive effect on many companies. I need to consider if any companies I own could be adversely effected.
• We’re at around 6 o’clock on the economic clock, truly sustainable rising share prices is probably 2 hours away, i.e. 6-18 months, but the last eight days of straight selling may distort that upwards.

I just found this on the economic clock. I said 6.00, they say 7.00.
We’re somewhere around that point and like all cycles this one will turn up. We’ll revert to the mean just as we always have. Investing is simple, ignore the noise and buy when things are cheap.
(Disclaimer: I have been feeling overwhelmed by the noise, it almost diverted me from my path. Neither ignoring the noise nor buying when things are cheap is simple, but if you can then investing does indeed become simple)

“We are now at about 7 o’clock. At this point in the cycle most people have left the market having sold their shares as a result of the economic downturn and retreated to cash, fixed interest or even property. Interest rates range down to historically low levels and eventually the point is reached where long term investors see value in the market and start to accumulate the better performing stocks. The seeds of the next recovery are sown and eventually equity and commodity prices will rise.” Paritech

An article of interest from the Wall St Journal including comments from Seth Klarman.