In the short term I’m not sure where our current path leads us. However, in the long term stocks are currently cheap and should provide excellent returns. Plus a free copy of Margin of Safety.

Markets hate uncertainty and Relenza provides it in spades. This could be an excellent opportunity and is worth further investigation. Downside risk is very low due to cash. Say maximum probable loss of 15 cents with upside of $1.15. That’s a preliminary risk to reward of 1/7.5. Over twice as good as I normally seek, but hey these are exceptional times and there are plenty of bargains to choose between. My initial valuation spreadsheet shows a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 to 1:5, i.e. excellent odds.

This is a pole, I hope you join in by leaving a comment. Go on, one quick reply. Do it.
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It seems email is required and I can’t see where to turn that off. So its down to trust. I won’t ever use or distribute your email, I WILL do NOTHING with it. Put any rubbish email in you want, as it will never get used.
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While it may be premature to declare the bear market dead and optimistic to hope the pictured bull lived to fight another day, there is no doubt that a bull market in stocks will return. Indexes will one day hit new highs and the current times will likely be viewed as the greatest buying opportunity of a generation.

Yes prices could still go lower. However, if like me you are averaging into this decline then you should actually be rooting for prices to go lower in the short term, so you can buy at even lower prices. At times like this wealth is transferred from weak hands to strong hands.

On Friday I embarked on buying the Ultra Bull Fund ULPIX via dollar cost averaging. If I discover information that points me to a particular sector I may invest some of my averaging into that.
[Update: The Ultra Funds are only good for short term trades. They are appalling bad over the long term and should not be used for for long term positions]

My current beliefs

This quarter reports will be bad, especially amongst discretionary companies like retailers. Next quarter will be even worse. Every retailer I know says that business …

MMC Contrarian (MMA.AX) plan on paying $200,000 in costs to buy $75M in shares at above market value so they can decrease the earnings per share, how on earth can that be a sensible allocation of capital?

CVTX Looks like good value to me at the moment. An OK balance sheet with some possible upside and no need for cash, four revenue sources, three pending FDA label expansions and a value on Ranexa of only $325Mish.

My feeling is the time has come for me to start averaging into the UltraBull ProFund.

While I am confident I can pick some good stocks, which will do well, I am not confident that I can outperform the major indexes over the coming year.

The Value Investing Congress is on.
Check out the VIC blog.

David Nierenberg – MOVE
Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors – Atlas America (ATLS)
Aaron Edelheit- Sable Value Management – Photo Channel Networks (PNWIF)
Jeffrey Schwarz, Metropolitan Capital Advisors – Domtar Corp (UFS) wins the prestigious Lynch most boring price.

Long Leaf Conference Call
http://www.longleafpartners.com/media%20files/100708-1.mp3
A short summary at TMF LL of the call.
Ken Heebner
Ken Heebner, of CGM Capital Growth Manager, and Ken Volpert, of the Vanguard Funds, discuss what today’s rate cut means for the markets. Contend selling can only last for days or weeks. Hedge funds being …

A few friends have been asking me whether they should invest now. In general I suggest indexing utilising market timing to further enhance dollar cost averaging. A friend cut me short the other day and asked what an index fund was. It is amazing what you to start to take for granted when you’re familiar with a topic.
The S&P 500 is an actively managed market-value-weighted index. It represents the best large companies in America, not simply the largest by market cap, sales or any one measure. It has been been …