I’m planning on digging into NFLX, but before I do here are some old notes for some background and investment approach.
I commented on selling NFLX back in May 2008 . In early April 2008 on TMF SA-NFLX board I said the following. [I have updated the short interest data and lightly edited.]
When looking at short ratio you should take a look at the last years data. Then compare the data to the price and think hard about why people may be shorting. In investing you must understand the bear arguments …

I have been watching EXEL for years. It is finally at a price where I am interested. Limited risk and a lot of easy gains possible from multiple catalysts of monetising their pipeline.

While supply and demand are powerful forces in economics and markets I read over the weekend that is is better to invest in demand driven rather than supply driven opportunities.
Random thoughts on energy and commodity investing.
Is oil and gas demand or supply driven? Peak oil theory suggests it is supply driven. The price of oil is more reflective of supply than demand. Oil shocks have occurred due to supply reasons.
Commodities appear to be demand driven. Supply is still considered endless, thus it is demand driven.
Short term outlook for energy is …

I’m adding CCRT to my watch list. This old Foolish favourite now languishing in the dog house, is starting to hit technical signals.

Mining and Energy
Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) shows exploration in the mining and energy sector reached record highs in the 2007-08 financial year.
The figures show $5.5 billion was spent scouting for new projects, with petroleum and iron ore the favourite commodities because of high global prices. read more
And hence why cycles exist. As prices and returns increase more capital floods reducing future profits. Couple that with decreasing demand and more falls are possible for mining and energy.
Still the master wave rider, Warren Buffett, …

I have just bought Suntech in a personal account and Fusion Portfolio will buy 3000 shares at the same price of $9.96. Earnings are out in two days on Thursday, my preview is here. I had butterflies in my stomach when placing the order and realise that current investor and sentiment will pound STP if they have a substantial miss or negative guidance. This investment has a 1-3year horizon, a short term investment for me.
Opportunity provided by a J.P. Morgan analyst who wrote in a note to clients. “As a …

I’ve accelerated my buying of late, particularly in our Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF) account. As I mentioned the other day the fund was cashed up and with new funds regularly added it makes sense to be buying more now.
I could start using margin in the months ahead, but most of the margin will be held in reserve for the next bull market to begin.
I liked MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED (MQG) half yearly results. The presentation is worthwhile.The strong often prosper at these times and with the loss of some …

Five days ago I wrote this analysis on the Commonwealth banks new structured product Capital Series Australia. Within a couple days a Google search listed it as the third hit when searching on Capital Series Australia. Then suddenly bam, the article no longer appears on a Google search under that phrase.
Is this censorship? I can’t find a simple way to contact contact Google by email to check why they censored my article.
The conclusion of my article was that Commonwealth bank is not being honest with investors. The Capital Series Australia …

The shorts have got out ahead of Suntech’s Q3 earnings announcement, firing up the rumour mills with some wild rumours. Let’s take a quick look at the three main claims.

Someone is always left holding the bag. This is the same concept as the oft quoted patsy at the poker table.
If you invest late into trends then you have a higher probability of being that patsy.
People investing late in trends should examine if they suffer from herd mentality, confirmation bias etc. While numerous studies show momentum strategies are successful, all those strategies attempt to identify major trends early on. One of the most basis the death cross of the 50dMA crossing below the 200day shows when getting on board this …