Valuing a company has parrellels to judging the beauty of a person wearing a mask. A lot is visible, but some will always be unknown. So a range of values is used to account for the unknown. Like beauty valuations are also subjective, a combination of art and science. My range of values for Biota range from $53M – $215M, with per share $0.70 – $1.20 looking like fair value and $0.30 as downside value. Keep in mind price can deviate considerably from value, including to the downside. Little has changed since my first quick valuation, 12 cent risk for 30-80cent reward with further possible upside and several possible catalysts. In the 2008 annual report Note 12 it is worth noting directors have stated “F2009 net cash inflow of approximately $12 million”.

Localisation is a possible theme for the 21st century. Power production will be among the many utilities that are affected by the localisation wave. Distributed systems will continue to play a role, but networks and many other forces will combine to see the rise of localisation on a world wide scale.
At some point 16% of the worlds dwellings will have their own energy production, then ultimately every building material will incorporate solar with wind generators powering a lot of other needs.
Mass waves from railways to automobiles and on to dot …

“During severe recessions the PE ratio of the market often drops below 10. The forward PE is 19 right now based on expected reported earnings. I’m not saying it will happen but in a severe bear market the S&P500 could go far under 600. That may sound incredible but it’s certainly not impossible using history as a guide.” Thomas Nogales

Compare new picks to current holdings is another great piece of advice which Klarman mentions and is a stepping stone on most investing paths. Can AXP dislodge STP or GE? Where will I deploy my WINS cash? STP main risk’s are the same as for most solar and tech companies.

Compounds and management under the microscope. A graphical pipeline for LANI, RSV and HRV and a cash flow issue. The pipeline is strong with compounds in PI (HRV), IIa (RSV) and LANI about to start PIII. A couple candidates are likely to progress this year.

One of my aims for the Fusion Portfolio was to dispel or at least shake the certainty of belief many individuals have in always being 100% invested. Somehow people made a link between not being able to time the markets and being 100% invested when there is no link. I find it as crazy as suggesting beta is a good measure of risk.
The following chart shows the percent invested for the Fusion Portfolio compared to the ASX200 Index. As the index has moved from overvalued to undervalued the fund has …

I’ve still got plenty more to learn from Klarman, though I will never follow his exact path. I’d be disappointed if I’d shelled out a grand for Margin of Safety. Klarman would call the trading of his book at Amazon “trading sardines”.

How far will the Baltic Dry Index Fall?
The Baltic Dry Index has plummeted and I totally missed the entire fall. I was meant to waiting for that. Where’s my head at, where’s my head at.

View the full BALDRY chart at Wikinvest

As Wikinvest states The Baltic Dry Index is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials.
I’m not sure how I missed the fall of the index from the spikes over 11,000 to today’s 855. Another opportunity that I missed when it was an obvious ripple that I was waiting …