Shorting now? You’ve got to be kidding

Someone is always left holding the bag. This is the same concept as the oft quoted patsy at the poker table.
If you invest late into trends then you have a higher probability of being that patsy.

People investing late in trends should examine if they suffer from herd mentality, confirmation bias etc. While numerous studies show momentum strategies are successful, all those strategies attempt to identify major trends early on. One of the most basis the death cross of the 50dMA crossing below the 200day shows when getting on board this trend was appropriate, back in January.

yttire’s initial post in this thread on TMF spelt out a good case for not going short right now. This was my response to the idea of using an ultra short now.

Stepping into a trade as yttire outlines is a great trading strategy. Most traders I have read recommend a similar strategy and even long term investors express similar sentiment in phrases like water the flowers and pull the weeds.

The only tools that I know which are any use at giving you an edge over the short term are sentiment and chart based. If you use those tools then you may also want to layer on some historical fundamental analysis. From that it seems likely we’re at fair value now. While markets often overshoot and hence lower prices are a possibility, the probability of lower markets are reducing.

There is no need to swing at every trade. Is this a time you’re likely to have a high probability of success with an ultra short?

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