Comments on: Leucadia National Corp. (LUK) 2008 Report http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/03/leucadia-national-corp-luk-2008-report/ Fusing Fundamental and Technical Analysis with lashings of Behavioural Finance. Investing in Australia and North America. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 06:57:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: Dean Morel http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/03/leucadia-national-corp-luk-2008-report/comment-page-1/#comment-580 Dean Morel Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:52:15 +0000 http://www.fusioninvesting.com/?p=991#comment-580 Hi Ruben Thanks for taking the time to comment. These are crazy volatile times on global stock market, so any short term price prediction I make is bound to be even less accurate than normal. The near term risk is the shares are now trading slightly above their book value, which under normal circumstances is low, but these are not normal times. What I meant by my comment is that after sudden gaps down in price on fundamental news, shares generally do not rebound quickly. They either keep falling or begin a period of sideways movement. Accumulation is the process of new buyers buying from weak hands. Once all the sellers have sold, shares can then move higher, this can take months. While I believe a long term investment in LUK at these prices has a high probability of being rewarding, I see no reason to jump in now. Naturally, saying that has dramatically increased the chance of a sudden rebound ;-) It's essential to keep in mind that there are many fish in the sea and that even if LUK was to rebound suddenly there are lots of other opportunities out there. I'm now standing aside and hoping to get the chance to buy LUK at lower prices over the next few months and may look at selling Puts. I'll be posting on MMA.AX tomorrow, which I see as great value at the moment. Keep in mind I'm not an investment advisor and everything on this site is simple my opinion and not investment advice. Hi Ruben
Thanks for taking the time to comment. These are crazy volatile times on global stock market, so any short term price prediction I make is bound to be even less accurate than normal.
The near term risk is the shares are now trading slightly above their book value, which under normal circumstances is low, but these are not normal times.

What I meant by my comment is that after sudden gaps down in price on fundamental news, shares generally do not rebound quickly. They either keep falling or begin a period of sideways movement. Accumulation is the process of new buyers buying from weak hands. Once all the sellers have sold, shares can then move higher, this can take months.

While I believe a long term investment in LUK at these prices has a high probability of being rewarding, I see no reason to jump in now. Naturally, saying that has dramatically increased the chance of a sudden rebound ;-) It’s essential to keep in mind that there are many fish in the sea and that even if LUK was to rebound suddenly there are lots of other opportunities out there. I’m now standing aside and hoping to get the chance to buy LUK at lower prices over the next few months and may look at selling Puts.

I’ll be posting on MMA.AX tomorrow, which I see as great value at the moment. Keep in mind I’m not an investment advisor and everything on this site is simple my opinion and not investment advice.

]]> By: Ruben http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2009/03/leucadia-national-corp-luk-2008-report/comment-page-1/#comment-579 Ruben Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:09:19 +0000 http://www.fusioninvesting.com/?p=991#comment-579 Hello Dean, i wanted to know what you meant by "...investors should now stand aside to wait for accumulation of shares to provide a floor." Are you suggesting LUK is not a good buy at the moment or it is? regards, Ruben Henriques (Sydney, Australia) Hello Dean,

i wanted to know what you meant by “…investors should now stand aside to wait for accumulation of shares to provide a floor.”

Are you suggesting LUK is not a good buy at the moment or it is?

regards,
Ruben Henriques (Sydney, Australia)

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