Don’t Believe You’re Right
I found the following in my draft folder, I wrote it on Feb 8th.
The Other day I said doubting that you’re definitely right ensures your decisions are logical rather than emotional. There is a clear and present danger of certainty with my alternative energy (AE) investments. Every other commodity has always reverted to its base level, oil is on the way there now. Yet the energy longs are so insistent that it is different this time and the “new” base is over $50 with much higher oil prices inevitable. I need to believe they’re right as AE has tanked after the last two energy crisies not to recover until the next. I give the energy longs a 60-70% chance of being right and note this time around GE is a big player in wind and during Obama’s presidency solar will hit grid parity in most places. The US will look to embrace and dominate alternative energy as a new growth driver for their stalled economy.
It appears from recent news that China is positioning itself to dominate AE, especially solar. While this has been good for Suntech, the problem of making money out of a commodity business still exists.
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