Comments on: Weekly Words of Wisdom

By: Peter

Peter — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 23:27:36 +0000

Congratulations and well done. Great result. Error is mine.

By: tcisboss

tcisboss — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 09:03:55 +0000

Peter if you read properly 400% return this year, Then seven figure returns for the past ten years.

By: Peter

Peter — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 04:02:14 +0000

2 years (based on Hotcopper dialogue) seems like a long time to be holding BDM stock if one is adopting a turtle trend following approach (I assume, which will of course, be wrong, based on the adage of stop loss limiting losses and free riding stock). Given that the stock recently made a 52 week high, it would have beeped on the radar screen of most technical traders, including turtle trend followers.

Anyway, 400% compouding over 10 years with 7 figure returns is absolutely amazing. $1 invested with tcisboss in 1999 would be worth roughly $256,000 ten years later today in 2009. That is a 256,000% gain. Possible if you are 99.9% leveraged to start off. $1 in equity and $999 in debt. You still need about 256% per year. Amazing.

As to BDM, current burn rate is $3m per year. They spend close to $1m per year in admin or other expenses. I do not understand why a biotech need to have offices in swanky Collins Street. It is certainly not for cheaper rent. If I am CEO of a biotech, I would want to be quite near the labs (note CSL and COH). Also do not understand why they use CPU as stock registry provider given their narrow shareholder base. They could be saving quite a bit going with a smaller registry provider.

Still only in Phase 1. $5m in the bank is just a drop in the ocean for impending Phase 2 and Phase 3, unless they find a big sugar daddy.

The only way I will play this is on a portfolio basis, with ten little promising biotech specs. But if you do that, you might as well go deep spelunking with venture capital projects. Australia, IMO, is near perfect for good returns on VC ventures because of poor government support- ref: Ventracor.

By: tcisboss

tcisboss — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:52:01 +0000

I should also say dean proffesional traders identify buy and most likely sell before the average punter even hears of the next big thing , Also being able to identify sectors that are hot what punters have to be aware of is one buying not falling in love with stock and taking profits and cutting stock quickly that does not perform. The belief that there are sharks out there is nonsense in small caps there are sharks in all area of the market blue chips are minipulated no differently than small caps. Its a matter being aware of your portfolio
limiting losses and learning to free carry hot stock as most investors hold losers to long and sell out of hot stocks to early.

By: tcisboss

tcisboss — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:36:44 +0000

Dean CSL use egg cultures which takes 12 to 16 weeks to produce a vaccine. BDM use a cell culture which is quicker not only have they signed with WHO, CDC is testing LAIV

The Netherlands, Feb. 23, 2009 – Schering-
Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP) today announced a license agreement between
Nobilon, Schering-Plough’s human vaccine business unit, and the World Health
Organization (WHO) to provide access to pandemic influenza vaccine manufacturing
technology to developing countries.
LAIV technology is specifically considered attractive for this purpose
because the manufacturing technology process is easier to transfer, capital investment
is lower and yields are higher, as compared to inactivated influenza vaccines.
The WHO Global Vaccine Action Plan seeks to expand influenza vaccine manufacturing
capacity in developing countries and enhance the global supply for pandemic vaccines

Nobilon International BV announced that it has reached an important milestone with the initiation of its first-in-human clinical development program for SCH 900795, a new intranasal Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) for annual seasonal use. The candidate vaccine is composed of the three attenuated Influenza viruses recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for seasonal vaccine, in an intranasal device. The LAIV differs from most existing influenza vaccines, because it has been designed to offer single-dose intranasal delivery, advanced cell culture manufacturing technology and potential earlier and broader protection against infection by influenza viruses

.BioDiem Ltd., Nobilon International BV and U.S. Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (cdc) have agreed to extend the Co-operative Research and Development Agreement associated with the company’s Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine for pandemic indications for one year. Since initiation of the agreement in August 2006, the research team has made significant progress toward the goal of characterising and evaluating LAIV candidates against influenza A (H5N1) for pandemic preparedness in pre-clinical models. The research team has successfully generated a H5N1 reassortant using the LAIV Master Donor Strains.

What you have to remember is Dean is that a single dose has a sell cost with all royalties of 3 to 4 dollars and it will be given to who for 3rd world countries remember normal vaccines cost 30 dollars and large stock piles of tamil flu and others aren’t needed. without this WHO and CDC are behind this as they realize Cell culture is the quickest way to get a vaccine in a push 2 weeks compared to eggs 12 to 16 weeks this stock sits at 8 to 10 cents they are starting human testing soon. I Know there are many stories out there but with my style be it resources biotech or anything I identify and move even in the worst market year for a long
time I returned 400% on my money with 7 figure returns for the last 10 years I wish you good luck

By: Dean Morel

Dean Morel — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:44:32 +0000

It appears I have been suspended from Hot Copper for posting a link on their site to my blog. I have checked their term of use agreement and can not see how I have violated it. I believe I have only posted a few links to my site and only when it was appropriate to the discussion.

So I bid Hot Copper adieu, though never say never

By: Dean Morel

Dean Morel — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:02:23 +0000

Hi tciboss, thanks for your comments.
Sorry if I missed your comments about options. I read a lot and sometimes skim too fast.
Intermoco is a 2 cent share with a market cap of $31M. I see they recently received some new orders.
Biota doesn’t make vaccines, there is a big difference between vaccines and anti-virals. What is the two to three week turnaround for? No company has ever or is ever likely to get a vaccine to the mass market within three weeks of a flu strain being identified. Testing and manufacture still needs to be done. I forget the details but IIRC CSL already produce vaccines in a few weeks, but it still takes a large well equipped company like them months to get it to market. BDM is another highly speculative share and not something I would recommend, but each to their own. BDM appears to have a market cap of around $5-6M. Here is their 2008 annual report.

While these companies may be fine for professional traders, everyone should tread carefully and beware that those waters are full of sharks.

Quick update on BDM as I’m interested in companies in this space. Their half year report shows NTA falling to 6.71 cents, despite a $1M milestone payment. That NTA is close to their annual burn rate, so if they have one stumble, miss one milestone it’s all over rover, unless of course shareholders pony up. Though it appears form their quarterly filing they may have received another milestone. Just making notes for future digging, this has been a two minute look so I might have a lot wrong