From David Rosenberg’s daily note:

Long-term investors should note the time-worn rule that bear markets in Treasuries do not occur until two things happen — and these two things are highly correlated:

(i) the unemployment rate begins a descent from its peak, and

(ii) the Fed signals its intent to tighten monetary policy.

If you read San Francisco FRB President Yellen’s speech from yesterday, you will see that even she upgraded her near-term views, but remains in the deflation camp and not the inflation camp and stills sees a “painfully slow” recovery ahead (she expressed deep concern about the commercial real estate market). So we are sure that it could be years before she ever supports a rate hike. Hat tip to MDC.

As a guy who has been thinking about how to profit from or at least mitigate the damage of the inevitably rising interest rates I decided to check some data to verify Rosenberg’s statement. Now I have to sort out to profit from rising rates. Suggestions anyone?

Data: Bureau of Labor

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2. Australian Interest Rate Securities and GTPGA
3. A Historical Refresher
4. Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment