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NZD:AUD – Is She Going Down on Us?

September 24, 2009 11:30 pm by Dean Morel

New Zealand - improving fundamentals, coming out of worst recession in 30 years and possibly into boom agricultural times.
Australia, voted the country most likely to succeed in a recent FI pole and the only modern economy that didn’t enter a recession, thanks to 1 out of 3 indicators showing only one quarter of negative growth.
It’s tough to pick a winner.

I know a couple who want to convert assets from NZD to AUD.

They were fearful and thinking of doing so as the AUD:NZD rate was headed to $1.30, fortunately they didn’t. Now it’s true that I know less about currency than moisturiser and without a longer term chart than the five year one which is hopefully rotating in the slideshow above (fingers crossed, first shot at the slideshow), without a longer term chart I can’t get an idea of the long wave, but the short medium term trend appears down. So I’d hold off for a better conversion rate, maybe start at $1.15. The long wave is important as currency is the trendiest of commodity. No I don’t mean it has a large following, though it is the most liquid (IIRC) market in the world, I mean it trends for the longest times up to and above 10 years.

To me that long view is important to help weigh the likelihood of this being a major trend change or a small retracement. Then there’s those fundamentals, surely sheep have to be in vogue sometime.

Here’s a ten year chart I just found, if you know a good source for longer term currency data or charts please leave a comment.
aud-nzd-exchange rate 10 year chart

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One Comment »

  • Lewis said:

    It’s at $1.29 to $1.30 now.

    Not great advice. Dunno where you did your maths, but the mid-term trend in the graphs is down which is exactly what happened.

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