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Biota’s Market, Influenza and Rhinovirus up close. Plus AGM
November 20, 2009 9:39 am by Dean Morel
If you haven’t checked out the cool cell size visualisation tool I linked the other day, then this is your reminder. [Use the slider Luke, use the slider...the one at the bottom of the linked page.]
Plus it’s great to see Biota two primary targets in the antiviral world, the influenza virus and rhinovirus.

Biota’s 2009 AGM
Summaries of the AGM were posted on Hot Copper [subscription required]. I’ve posted some snips at the bottom.
Extra bits I noted
- The CEO, Peter Cook, side stepped a question on the patent expiration date of Lani. He alluded to that it would have a ten year royalty stream and that reports that the patent had only five years to run were wrong, but he did not provide any details or certainty. Why is it so hard for investors to get information on this critical point?
- No-one asked about the market potential and likely pay-off of the purchased assets. Are they potential blockbusters or not?
- Most interesting was the articulation of the vision which is now drug discovery instead of drug discovery and development. Funny then, that so much of the future strategy was around drug development rather than discovery! Biota’s strategy is to profit from adding value to compounds early in the drug discovery and development cycle. The strategy clearly encompasses drug development so it seems strange for management to say Biota are a Drug Discovery company.
- PowerPoint 101. Make sure you use the right font size and the presentation is easily readable! Peter Cook’s presentations were unreadable.
- I’ll give Jim Fox a pass this year, but I hope I never again hear him say “that was before my time”.
AGM Notes from Other Investors
I hope they don’t mind me pasting them here, as they’ll disappear into the sea of posts on HC.
It was well worth attending the AGM. They present very well and were very forthcoming with both questions presented beforehand along with questions from shareholders.Response to Nasdaq listing: A very detailed response was provided and they have obviously looked into this at some depth. Reasons as stated in the previous post, it’s not as easy as simply wanting to list, they need to “americanise” the company to some extent, and have a requirement for capital (it’s a nice position to be in when the coffers are overflowing and a biotech has to return money to shareholders!). Their strategy is to attract international investors, Peter Cook will do a roadshow of sorts in the US to some insto’s in a week or two… keep an eye on the register!
Overall the body language was very positive, and although we didn’t get any additional information about “deals” the wheels are certainly in motion, mention of discussions “initiated” and “promising” during the presentation. Hopefully before June next year, a reason provided for the length of time it takes is due to the extensive due dilligence required by pharma before forking out alot of cash.
Some interesting slides in the presentation, especially the update to market size, I saw USD8bn globally for stockpiling, USD1bn replacement and USD0.8bn seasonal use. Exciting part about seasonal market is the Japanese growth which with my eyesight looking at a bar chart was around 250m, growth which was mentioned driven by GSK, the plan is to roll out to other countries in future. A big development in my view as it’s obvious that GSK see the potential in the seasonal market, perhaps the stockpiling is easier to sell but with the massive increase in consumer/doctor awareness around anti-virals why not target the seasonal markets. The stockpiling market is absolutely massive.
Great to see resolutions passes with such conviction, the floor also all supported resolutions from what I could see (I think 2 people voted against the rem, one due to not receiving an annual report). Shareholders seemed very happy with management and progress, and why shouldn’t they be. It’s been a cracking year with progress on HRV, LANI, Relenza, buyback, capital return, expansion of pipeline etc…. this management team is worth every penny, they are building a long term sustainable biotechnology company, and we get to tag on for the ride.
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Here are my personal notes/observations which might be of interest to those who were not able to make it to the meeting:
1). Quite a decent crowd at the meeting (approx 100-120).
2). Chairman confirmed that Relenza royalty ends late 2014
3). According to Mr CEO, LANI licensing – negotiation going well, expect news within 6 months.
4). ATO ruling on the capital return not yet forthcoming but once available will be posted on BTA’s website. Should come in time to assist shareholders file their 2010 tax return.
5). BTA needed more than 1 royalty generating product, hence the rationale for acquiring (assets only!) Prolysis Ltd (UK); and (the company) of MaxThera Inc (US). Both are in the business of anti-bacterial agents fighting “super bugs” in hospital. (In lay man’s terms what Mr CEO said)
6). When “retained earnings” turn positive (i.e. tax losses brought forward are wiped clean), likely to be this year due to substantial Relenza royalty, tax will be payable, and shareholders can expect franked dividends.
7). Company is very mindful of cash planning i.e. balancing internal cash requirements versus returns to shareholders. Will return cash to shareholders whenever possible.
8). Mr CEO cautioned the GSK’s 190m course CAPACITY INTENTION in that this should not be interpreted as production or achieved sales.
9). First Relenza, then LANI as 2nd generation anti-viral, and now comes FLUNET, the 3rd generation anti-viral. 4,000 times potency compared to Relenza. (This could be exciting)
10). Mr CEO cautioned against “gloating” over some AH1N1 strains which proved resistant to Tamiflu and suggested that this does not spell the end of Tamiflu.
11). He also confirmed the existence of 1 case of Relenza-resistant virus taken from a patient who recovered from the illness after being prescribed Relenza. More such cases can be expected in the future, he reckoned.
12). Mr CEO was very upbeat about the company, but I felt he was very condescending when fielding some questions from long time shareholders.
13). (Personally I think he is a bit arrogant in talking down to his investors – a bit of modesty is not out of place but I admire the way he could roll off his tongue words like laninamivir, neuraminidase inhibitor, etc…all in the same breath).
14). One cheeky shareholder pointed to a non-existent Note 35 referred to in the Directors’ declaration on page 55 of the Annual Report. Some red faces.
15). The same shareholder asked if the return of capital will now be affected as new shares will be issued to acquire the 2 new businesses. Mr Chairman said no, Mr CFO corrected him and said that new shares were being issued today which are entitled to the return of capital. (from 11.43 down to 11.18 cents per share).
16). Not a single question was raised of the remuneration report.
17). Mr Chairman and Mr CEO between them answered 4 main questions sent in by shareholders viz.
(a) Listing on NASDAQ – BTA consulted with Caliburn and made its decision that it is inappropriate at this time.
Reasons: need stock liquidity, need to Americanise company, may not work as 2 local companies have delisted from NASDAQ but Resmed doing well. On the other hand, BTA is encouraging offshore investors, and Mr CEO will be promoting BTA overseas.
(b) Dividends and Dividend Reinvestment
With royalty from Relenza, company is conscious about returning cash to shareholders after taking into account in-house requirements. Any return of cash to shareholders could come by way of dividends, return of capital or higher share price (share buyback)
(c) GSK promotion of Relenza.
Fear not. Just because Relenza is not constantly in the media does not mean GSK is not promoting it. They deal with public health officials, and discussions are seldom made public. Mr CEO has every confidence in Andrew Witty and his team at GSK.
(d) LANI development and potential cash flows to BTA.
This question was missed completely but the topic was touched on earlier in the Mr CEO’s opening address.
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Disclosure: Long Biota
Related posts:
- Hunter Hall discusses Biota
- Biota Hits Ball Out of Park
- Falling Knife: Biota Holdings Ltd. (BTA)
- Fusion Investing Portfolio Buys Biota
- Biota Holdings’ Relenza Royalties Tops Estimates
- Biota 2008 AGM
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