OT: Without Hot Air or Within the Box
I wrote about the excellent book Without Hot Air last month.
I was sitting in my backyard admiring our Aloe Plicatilis, a fan aloe, when it struck me how 2D in thinking David MacKay was. He was thinking within the box. In fairness I do recall MacKay stressing he based the figures on current technology. Though that’s as helpful as fossil fuel analysts and commentators who estimate reserves based on current consumption.
Back to my backyard. Each leaf of the Aloe was aligned to obtain maximum light and in so doing increased the light capturing surface from 2D into 3D. Solar will go 3D at some point in the future. Though first a considerable amount of our cities and deserts will be covered in 2D solar cells. Plants as it happens have a low overall photosynthetic efficiency of 3 to 6 percent of total solar radiation. [1]
How will 3D solar cells work? Just like a Aloe Plicatilis, long rigid leaves fanning out. Perhaps held together in a flexible web to support many solar aloes in a roof top installation. Software to align the leaves to the sun. We’ll power our personal transport and the majority of our home power needs. Solar forest will be sprout in desserts. Energy will not be our most limiting resource.
Yes, you’re right I’m getting twenty to thirty years ahead of myself, can that make me any money now. Alternative energy is one of THE guaranteed mega waves for the next few decades. Photovoltaic production has been doubling every 2 years, increasing by an average of 48 percent each year since 2002, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy technology.[5] Healthcare is another mega wave as boomers will vote on mass for excellent healthcare and benefits for their generation.
While researching photosynthesis efficiency for this article I stumbled across this photo, damn, reality is ahead of my thinking! It’s primitive and in twenty years we’ll be laughing at it, but it’s a first step on the path.
The mega cycle will undulate and no one company is guaranteed to succeed. Wind is safer than solar as until micro turbines are perfected wind can’t be commoditised. Solar is already commoditised as companies like Yingli prove jumping from making downpipes or similar to being a solar player. To win in a commoditised industry you want to be low cost, have more advanced research and turn your name into a brand. Think Intel Inside.
On the upside silicon constraints are no longer a problem and more countries are likely to start subsidies, plus the elusive grid parity is probably only two years away.
Fossil Energy
If major economies dip in late 2010 or 2011 then oil and alternative energy stocks could fall. That would be a good time to buy both. Be patient, don’t buy too soon on the dip.
Solar Companies
The solar industry aims to provide half of all new U.S. electricity generation by 2025. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). Our solar power future: The U.S. photovoltaics industry roadmap through 2030 and beyond.
- First Solar (FSLR)
- SunPower Corporation (SPWRA)
- Suntech Power Holding Ltd. (STP)
- JA Solar (JASO)
- Nano Solar
- Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE)
- China Sunergy (CSUN)
- LDK Solar (LDK)
- Solarfun (SOLF)
Wind Companies
- General Electric
- Vestas Wind Power Systems
- Small Canadian Wind Sensing Firm, Catch the Wind
Related posts:
Your ideas definitely are not new. Check out Bill Gross’s work on flower inspired (using Genetic Algorithms) solar cells: http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gross_on_new_energy.html
It already works, it’s already for ssale
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