1. A DCF model for cashflow- and despite DCF modelling limits over long term, is still the best methodology for this sort of business;

2. Figures from ASX on total number of listed entities on a month to month basis;

3. Comparative figures from Computershare;

4. Comparison of margins for both companies;

5. Looking at other smaller registries and their technologies;

6. A detailed look at the prospectus docs.

7. An interview with the CEO.

8. The net cash position now, and going forward.

9. The possibility of M & A activity.

I do recall a fair value of somewhere close to 50c, using very conservative assumptions.

25c was the 50% discount entry point about 6 months ago. Things have improved since then. For me, this is a 5 to 10 year stock, holding for yield, rather than capital gains. But unfortunately, I never pulled the trigger, so instead of being on the grand stand, I am now in the spectator’s area.

Any expectations for ASW?

1. Geniuses think alike: OR
2. Fools seldom differ.

I am kinda hoping it breached the $2 mark, and all the technical traders will cause the price to fall to the next resistance level. At that price, picking up Biota is like “crossing the street to pick up the dollar note lying on the pavement” (quote Jim Rogers). Alas, I have to be sure I dont get hit by a speeding truck on my way across.

IMHO, you wont get 190m doses for two years. I worked on 190m plus 120m plus 75m plus 75m, WITHOUT any further pandemics, and without valuing LANI and all other pipeline ventures. I did not write off Relenza totally after the patents expires, and gave it some residual value (20m per year) for another 5 years. These conservative figures still works. The only challenge is to try to stop BTA from consuming too large a portion of the portfolio.