Comments on: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) Mauled by Bears http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2010/01/green-mountain-coffee-roasters-inc-gmcr-mauled-by-bears/ Fusing Fundamental and Technical Analysis with lashings of Behavioural Finance. Investing in Australia and North America. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 06:57:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: Green Mountain Coffee: Great Quarter but I’m Still Bearish | Stocks and Sectors http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2010/01/green-mountain-coffee-roasters-inc-gmcr-mauled-by-bears/comment-page-1/#comment-1590 Green Mountain Coffee: Great Quarter but I’m Still Bearish | Stocks and Sectors Thu, 04 Feb 2010 12:02:30 +0000 http://www.fusioninvesting.com/?p=4659#comment-1590 [...] not! One quarter does not bring the fat lady out to sing. In my bearish arguments here and here I argued that the main reason to put GMCR on a shorting watch-list is valuation. GMCR is [...] [...] not! One quarter does not bring the fat lady out to sing. In my bearish arguments here and here I argued that the main reason to put GMCR on a shorting watch-list is valuation. GMCR is [...]

]]> By: Green Mountain Coffee: Great Quarter but I’m Still Bearish | Reaction Radio http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2010/01/green-mountain-coffee-roasters-inc-gmcr-mauled-by-bears/comment-page-1/#comment-1589 Green Mountain Coffee: Great Quarter but I’m Still Bearish | Reaction Radio Thu, 04 Feb 2010 10:38:59 +0000 http://www.fusioninvesting.com/?p=4659#comment-1589 [...] not! One quarter does not bring the fat lady out to sing. In my bearish arguments here and here I argued that the main reason to put GMCR on a shorting watch-list is valuation. GMCR is [...] [...] not! One quarter does not bring the fat lady out to sing. In my bearish arguments here and here I argued that the main reason to put GMCR on a shorting watch-list is valuation. GMCR is [...]

]]> By: HelicalZz http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2010/01/green-mountain-coffee-roasters-inc-gmcr-mauled-by-bears/comment-page-1/#comment-1509 HelicalZz Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:00:54 +0000 http://www.fusioninvesting.com/?p=4659#comment-1509 When to exit a growth story is always a difficult thing to manage. I'm not heading to the doors yet. As a longtime owner of GMCR, I do not yet believe the growth story is played out. I would not be selling ahead of holiday numbers, and believe the rollout of K-cups into supermarkets should be a large growth driver in the coming year. Most of that rollout occurred in 2009, but the benefits should be in 2010, so while channel fill growth likely will diminish, the benefit hasn't been fully realized yet IMO. But ... I haven't increased my holdings since 2006 either (meant to once, but missed). That said, the patent issue is the one that concerns me the most. Market share will certainly diminish after expiration and other brands begin providing K-cups with no real benefit to GMCR. The recent acquisitions of licensing partners is likely in order to keep whatever product loyalty is being established now. Good commentary. Zz When to exit a growth story is always a difficult thing to manage. I’m not heading to the doors yet. As a longtime owner of GMCR, I do not yet believe the growth story is played out. I would not be selling ahead of holiday numbers, and believe the rollout of K-cups into supermarkets should be a large growth driver in the coming year. Most of that rollout occurred in 2009, but the benefits should be in 2010, so while channel fill growth likely will diminish, the benefit hasn’t been fully realized yet IMO. But … I haven’t increased my holdings since 2006 either (meant to once, but missed).

That said, the patent issue is the one that concerns me the most. Market share will certainly diminish after expiration and other brands begin providing K-cups with no real benefit to GMCR. The recent acquisitions of licensing partners is likely in order to keep whatever product loyalty is being established now.

Good commentary.

Zz

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