Comments on: Investometer 2009 Year End

By: Sean

Sean — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 10:34:58 +0000

Hi Dean, thanks for the tip about the email. I’m a lazy sod and tend to fill out the minimum.

Currently, there aren’t any other companies I’m looking at. I’m fresh out of ideas and think I will take a break from following investing except perhaps for half an hour a weekend until something interesting happens. Currently I have an index market weighting in Super and a position in TLS and WOW.

By: Dean Morel

Dean Morel — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 05:36:53 +0000

Hi S
In case you’re wondering why your comments always await approval, it’s because the software uses email address to match people and automatically approve them once they’ve been approved. I don’t mind either way, just letting you know. If you do want to add an email then I don’t even care if it is real or not as I never use them for anything.

On CSL. I haven’t looked at them since my last review. I agree that is a good way to get exposure to the falling AUD without the risk or timing problems associated with other strategies. One concern I have with CSL is their employee turnover. They are forever advertising for positions and from what I hear from a pharma employment agent I know is that a lot of their people have been sending in their resumes over the last year or so. While that may not effect their vampirish oligopoly, it always concerns me when employees aren’t happy.

I see no point in buying companies like CSL unless you get them for an absolute bargain. I will look again if they drop under $30. Got any other companies you’re looking at?

By: S

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 08:26:20 +0000

Hi Dean, the exit strategies will have to occur at some stage but it seems like they are in the sweet spot with quatitative easing in the US. The Fed seems to have control of the short end and the long end and while they’re at it the middle end (of the yield curve). They have in effect been buying more than half of the treasuries issued ! It is just amazing how the new supply of treasuries hasn’t dented the yield at all.

I have no idea how long they can do this for and whether they can pull it off. Amazing. I reckon if market forces were at work, treasury yields in the US would be higher and I suppose so does Bill Gross. He’s been selling but the Fed has been buying. This means the USD may go to artificially low levels and be prone to a big snap back. One might assume this is well known and factored into currencies, but maybe not. Why go against the momentum when you can wait until tomorrow or the day after and get better value?

I think I’ll get some Australian stocks with USD exposure like CSL when AUD gets to parity. CSL is starting to look cheap but may get cheaper. sub $30 would be a nice price.

By: Dean Morel

Dean Morel — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 04:20:38 +0000

You’re right S, and Rio is hitting 52 week highs today. It seems investors think we’re in the clear and the likes of Bill Gross and James Chanos are wrong. I’d be very careful taking opposing positions to those two guys. If you haven’t read Gross’ January investment outlook then I encourage you to do so. I loved his comments on the problems with democracy. As far as outlook goes, perhaps I need to bring my sell in May and go away forward two months, sell in March and …what’s a good rhyme for that?
“Additionally, if exit strategies proceed as planned, all U.S. and U.K. asset markets may suffer from the absence of the near $2 trillion of government checks written in 2009. It seems no coincidence that stocks, high yield bonds, and other risk assets have thrived since early March, just as this “juice” was being squeezed into financial markets.”

By: S

Mon, 11 Jan 2010 04:09:25 +0000

wow, resources have put in a pretty big effort in the last week. Sold out of RIO today. It’s gone up 10% just in the last week. In fact the market is starting to look fully priced to me. I still have my super in 100% aussie equities but have reduced my discretionary investment to just WOW and TLS at the moment. Maybe I’ll pick up some CSL if it gets cheaper.