I don’t know anything about ELD, I’d consider buying a small punt at 80c. Maybe there are assets that could be sold and it’s a cigarette butt with one last puff.

On the turnover potential Morningstar’s writup : “As a low-margin business, ELD is highly sensitive to changes in EBIT margin. A sustained 1% lift in EBIT margin would boost valuation around 50%.”

Selling for the tax loss is an option, though I have still a few tax losses up my sleeve from a few speculative bets that blew up in 2008.

I see it’s down another 4% today (weeps into his beer)

I was surprised to find that ELD wasn’t selling for a greater discount. I had hoped it was already very cheap and I was going to get to nab shares at a big discount. Perhaps the story is too closely followed to allow that. As a long term holder you’ve got a considerable advantage to investors like me who are only now diving into the story. I know it probably doesn’t feel that way now, but time brings a level of knowledge and understanding that analysis can’t match. Good luck I really hope it works out for you, though I do hope we see $1.20 first

I don’t think you’re fishing and this is probably not a good time to selling out, but have you considered a tax loss? While the ATO frowns on trading for the sole purpose of tax losses, their guidelines are vague. There are plenty reasons why you might consider selling now and buying at a later date, or doubling now and selling half later. Or maybe you want to do an off market transfer from one legal account to another (eg your name, your wifes, family trust, SMSF) for some particular reason. Naturally check any thoughts you have with your accountant and none of what I’ve said should be considered advice or a recommendation or anything akin to those.

Also, if ELD does fall below $1.20 can you please leave another comment. One of my failings is that I often miss opportunities as I forget to check them for a couple weeks only to find they dipped below my buy price when I wasn’t looking. TIA

Still, besides the issues you have covered, there are one or two other positives.

I think the new management can be expected to surprise on the upside. I think Malcolm Jackman is one of the better operators out there and this sort of company does suit his style. The vision he has articulated is clear, sensible and a welcome change from previous management. I think he can pull this one off, though it will be hard.

Secondly, rainfall since November across most of QLD and NSW should add some sort of a kicker to earnings (hard to say exactly as the company’s books are such a mess). I think Elders might be lucky enough to coincide a recovery year with a good year for the rural sector.

Am I just fishing for something to keep me positive about the company? Maybe, but every dog has its day (I hope).