With Shiller’s ten year adjusted P/E climbing higher into overvalued territory at 21.3,  I thought it would good to update the S&P 500 charts from these posts from last July. Digging Deeper into the Data 1871-2009 and The Odds are Stacked for Positive Gains.

Click charts to enlarge.

Zooming in on the last decade.

Anyone interested in my prediction? Well here it is. Those who regularly make predictions on markets will regularly be wrong! If that sounds contradictory to my market timing stance then let me elaborate. At extremes I’m prepared to be more aggressive or conservation as conditions warrants, but the vast majority of time markets are in no man lands. During those periods there is simply no point in making predictions. Markets can go further than anyone can predict and when they turn no-one can reliably predict. This is one of those times, we’re in no mans land, markets could climb higher or fall or some fear or another.

Though just because I can’t predict the market direction over the next year doesn’t mean I sit on my hands. As always I continue to sell fully priced stocks and look for under priced ones. Most of the time I do so with a general disposition, that disposition currently has me selling into a rising market.

I hope markets continue higher this year giving me the opportunity to continue to sell down.

Related posts:

1. Three Months of Gains go Poof
2. School Holidays – CU in Feb
3. The Odds are Stacked for Positive Gains