The Fourth Semiconductor Wave
The fourth semiconductor wave has reached it’s turning point. We’re about top go vertical on the s curve.
I measure the waves in technology by annual spending on semi-conductors, which peaked at $5billion in 1976 (the MainframeWave), $26 billion in 1983 (thePC Wave) and $202 billion in2000 (the Internet Wave). Eachwave peaked 5X to 8X higher than the prior one. The Fourth Wave began in 2002, when semiconductor sales began to grow again. It confirmed itself in 2004, when sales of $213 billion exceeded the 2000 record.
For 2005, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) started the year predicting sales to be down 6%. I said up 8% to 12%. In July, the SIA revised their forecast to +6%. I still see 8% growth or more, with an up year in 2006. So the Fourth Wave is intact, and I expect it will play out over many years until we hit $1 trillion per year in chip sales, which is 5X the 2000 high. via Michael Murphy newsletter September 2005.
Here’s a couple excellent starters for ten on the effect of the sigmoid curve on human development and growth.
Start Here
Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.”
Then read on
The above chart is from history of the wave and shows the really long waves in human development. It’s worth reading and contains a long list of references . It’s adapted from Bell, 1973; Jensen, 1999; Kordis & Ribeiro, 2005; Lynch & Kordis, 1988; and Toffler, 1980. Notice how the waves are getting shorter and each wave has an exponential period within it. The fourth wave will leap us to a place no-one can accurately predict. It’s coincidental that we are entering the fourth wave of human development at the same time as we enter the fourth wave of semiconductors.
It has been predicted that humanity is fast approaching an omega point, or singularity (Broderick, 2001; Kurzweil, 2005; P. Russell, 1995, 2004; Sterling, 2004; Teilhard de Chardin, 1964, 2002), when predicting the future will be nearly impossible due to the rapid convergence of technology, humanity…
Machine Cognition, nano-technology, medical advancements and much more will be part of the wave. First though it’s time to find the best portable computing device within a handicapped race.
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