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Tonight I’m all Alone

April 27, 2010 6:48 pm by Dean Morel

Tonight I’m all alone with my first assignment results in seventeen years. 1993 was the last time I handed in an assignment, so I was feeling a tad rusty while preparing this assignment. I think I nailed it and deserve a good grade. What’s more important is that I know I’ve learnt a lot from the subject and the assignment was fantastic for drumming the key ideas home.

I’d like to say sorry to RSS readers. I’m not sure why the graphics don’t display properly in Google Reader. Well actually I’m pretty sure it’s because of the stylesheet I use for graphic handling, I’m just not sure how to easily change the code to ensure images displays properly in readers. Too much nerd?

Sean pointed out that WOW.AX had dropped below $27 late last week. I agree with him that $25+change would be an attractive price for this high ROE company. I’ve spent more time looking at Woolies and Coles since last commenting on them and pondering why they have not emulated the likes of Tesco. As it turns out my question should have been why isn’t Tesco trying to emulate Woolies and Coles. 23% of every retail dollar spent in Australia ends up in their pockets. In groceries they pocket 70%.

ELD.AX continues to build a base and as I’ve pointed out before may be of interest to value investors at these prices. Here’s my write up on Elders from February. My conclusion was “Elders forecast a turnaround in EBIT for 2010 from $17M to $84M. Debt has been reduced via the institutional and shareholder placement and asset sales. Gearing is now low. The dividend has been suspended until 2012. A new management team is in place with a lot to do to reverse the previous team’s diworsification of Elders. It’s still to early to predict the success of any turnaround; however, the risk of total failure now appears low. Unfortunately the potential rewards don’t appear to be great either.”

Here’s Elders latest presentation, April 21st to UBS Small Caps Conference.

Back to the start. I always associate the word tonight with Jonathan Richman and the Modern Lovers.

Disclosure: No position in WOW or ELD at time of writing.

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Related posts:

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  2. Elders Limited hitting multi-decade lows

4 Comments »

  • Justin said:

    Hey Dean,

    Regarding Elders, I noticed that today Ruralco (pg 51 in the Fin Review) announced that first half profit would be between 15 and 25% higher than last year due to improved trading conditions.

    If I recall correctly Wesfarmers also mentioned something recently about improved performance from Landmark.

    Of course it’s no guarantee that Elders is making the most of the conditions, but I’m beginning to think that it mght surprise on the upside. I also have a fair amount of respect for Malcolm Jackman and hope to see his fingerprints all over the next Elders result (not sure when the next market update will be though).

    Disclosure – I am a long-suffering investor in ELD

    Cheers
    Justin

  • Dean Morel (author) said:

    Hi Justin
    I was very tempted at $1.24 today. The recent open briefing contains a lot of current information on performance. http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100326/pdf/31pgxcrvtrtwk5.pdf With a Sept year end I expect Elders will be announcing the interim results in May. Auto and rural sound on track or ahead, Elders is borderline and Forestry is completely up in the air. The interim will contain the write-down for FEA.

  • Justin said:

    Hi Dean,

    Yes I saw the open briefing. I was hoping it would be a bit more positive. Like you say there are a few bullets to dodge – MIS being one of them. The FEA writedown is going to make things look messy too.

    If the market continues to have the Greek wobbles, you may have an opportunity below $1.20 you would have to thnk.

  • Justin said:

    Hope you hadn’t taken the plunge on Elders yet! You may get it below $1 any day now :-)

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