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Three Months of Gains go Poof

May 7, 2010 10:02 pm by Dean Morel

 AU:XJO  S&P AUST INDEX ASX 200 INDEX (ASX) Chart: CLICK for BigCharts

I don’t think I need to say more.

Except….I hope those buying now are shooting their wad early. I’m standing back, forever practicing my patience, looking for any real mis-pricing opportunities. Keeping an eye on stocks showing strong support during the decline. Two small stocks I have positions in have held up strongly; AMM.AX and ASW.AX. If I had more time I’d dig into ELD and PSH as those knives keep falling and even trash bounces high if it’s compacted enough .

Here’s my plan this decline.

1. Market bounces from here, I do nothing and AKAM and MMM get called away, increasing my cash position nicely. Speaking of which I haven’t published my investometer this month. I moved some Aussie funds from our US trading account to pay down a line of credit here in Australia. I figured the secure 8% tax free average for the next year from paying down the line of credit was a great return. As it was the first time I’ve withdrawn funds from that account I need to re-jig my graph, but I’m down to around 82% (75% if called on AKAM and MMM) in our large no inflow account and 96% in our SMSF as it has the constant cash flow.

In April I sold Washington Mutual, Middleby, Penrice Soda, Bebe and Sandisk. That’s a lot for me. I’ve only made twelve other trades since start FY10 (July 1st).

I hoping today’s buyers were too early.

2. Sell in May and go away. At the start of the year I said Sell In May was my catch cry for the year.

3. Market plummets as Europe falls apart. While not probable it is an outside chance. I wait and wait and then start to buy.

Disclosure: Positions in some stocks mentioned. Bad cold making coherent thought difficult.

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2 Comments »

  • Sean said:

    The allords looks to be better value now. I’m not a big fan of catching a falling knife with small stocks so have to innoculate myself with comments like “I’m indifferent to Relenza over Vitamin C!”. Even though deep down I crave to buy el cheapo stocks, it’s really not been good for my wallet in the past. But it may work for others.

    The index is different and I like to catch this where I can as it hasn’t left me bloody (as long as the uptrend is intact). I sold STW in the 4800 range so bought a little bit at open yesterday. I’m looking at scaling in from 4400-4000. It could go lower of course. Indiviual stocks I’m watching to find a good entry in if they fall enough are WOW, CSL and QBE.

  • Dean Morel (author) said:

    Hi Sean
    Yes things look better value now, but that’s anchoring isn’t it. Great work selling at 4800.

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