Articles in the Analysis Category
Analysis »
Interest Rate Securities come in four primary flavours:
Corporate Bonds. An unsecured loan to a company for a fixed period of time at a fixed rate of interest.
Floating rate notes. An interest rate security that pays interest at a variable rate that is set periodically in relation to an underlying reference rate.
Convertible Notes. A loan made to a company at a fixed rate of interest with the right to be either redeemed (i.e. repaid by the company) for cash or converted into ordinary shares at a predetermined date or within a …
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Conclusion
Cyclical company, at the bottom of their earnings cycle with historically low ratios, like P/E, P/B, P/S and P/FCF. Close to upswing in their earnings cycle due to probable margin expansion. Will also benefit from ratio expansion. Both fundamental and technical conditions in place for substantial price rise.
Investment in-line with my general thesis that commodity prices, DOW inputs, will fall as demand falls. The expanding margins should more than offset any softening in demand for DOW products. The agreed Rohm and Haas acquisition is an added risk with the massive …
Analysis »
Part One of my Biota analysis was an example of how I initially approach investigating a biotech. In short read the filings and company website to get a base idea of products, pipeline, management, cash and cash flow. Then determine a rough value to see if there is any point in digging deeper. As I concluded I saw a lot of assets and existing cash flow going for a bargain price. I initiated a position in a personal account on Friday. This is part two in my Biota series.
I have …
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Analysis »
Markets hate uncertainty and Relenza provides it in spades. This could be an excellent opportunity and is worth further investigation. Downside risk is very low due to cash. Say maximum probable loss of 15 cents with upside of $1.15. That’s a preliminary risk to reward of 1/7.5. Over twice as good as I normally seek, but hey these are exceptional times and there are plenty of bargains to choose between. My initial valuation spreadsheet shows a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 to 1:5, i.e. excellent odds.
Analysis »
CVTX Looks like good value to me at the moment. An OK balance sheet with some possible upside and no need for cash, four revenue sources, three pending FDA label expansions and a value on Ranexa of only $325Mish.
Analysis »
Sadia (SDA) is a Brazilian based international purveyor of meat and other processed foods.
They are a classic fallen knife which fell hard and fast due to their finance department screwing the foreign exchange pooch. They were caught by both the US dollar appreciation and the fall in commodity prices. They were hedged the other way, double doh!, and the result is a massive hole in their balance sheet. the opportunity maybe that the stupidity could be a one-off thing and their core business remain strong and growing a good clip, …
Analysis »
With earnings looming and consumers tightening their belts is now the time to sell BWLD?
Buffalo Wild Wings is due to report Q3 earnings between 27-Oct and 3-Nov. Fear is griping the market and pundits reasoning that the first place consumers will cut back is discretionary spending and in particular eating out. So why is BWLD still trading at a premium? BWLD has had a volatile year, but it has bucked the downward trend among restaurants this year.
Analysis »
General Electric, GE, leads the way. I like this writeup by Henry Blodgett.
My initial reaction, with GE futures down, is that this is a good opportunity to buy GE on tempoary weakness, though there is probably no need to rush. I continue to see the GE glass as half full. This is why I am investing. “Industrial earnings to remain strong in third quarter, up 10-15%, led by infrastructure businesses” and they say in the press release
In their press release GE state a lot, so you should probably just read …
