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Commentary »

[12 Dec 2008 | No Comment | ]

Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP)
I won’t be buying any more as I had a large serve at around $10.
I was wrong about a few things in my last post on Suntech. I predicted earnings reasonably well yet poorly anticipated market reaction. Score fundie 1, behavioral -1.
Long term theme is still reasonably intact, but there are some questions over the short term. Look at the cash flow carefully.
US electricity consumption is set to rise 41% by 2020. I see the majority of increase being supplied by alternative energy and that …

Purchases »

[19 Nov 2008 | No Comment | ]

I have just bought Suntech in a personal account and Fusion Portfolio will buy 3000 shares at the same price of $9.96. Earnings are out in two days on Thursday, my preview is here. I had butterflies in my stomach when placing the order and realise that current investor and sentiment will pound STP if they have a substantial miss or negative guidance. This investment has a 1-3year horizon, a short term investment for me.
Opportunity provided by a J.P. Morgan analyst who wrote in a note to clients. “As a …

Analysis, Featured »

[17 Nov 2008 | No Comment | ]
Shorting Suntech

The shorts have got out ahead of Suntech’s Q3 earnings announcement, firing up the rumour mills with some wild rumours. Let’s take a quick look at the three main claims.

Commentary »

[4 Nov 2008 | No Comment | ]

Localisation is a possible theme for the 21st century. Power production will be among the many utilities that are affected by the localisation wave. Distributed systems will continue to play a role, but networks and many other forces will combine to see the rise of localisation on a world wide scale.
At some point 16% of the worlds dwellings will have their own energy production, then ultimately every building material will incorporate solar with wind generators powering a lot of other needs.
Mass waves from railways to automobiles and on to dot …

Philosophy »

[2 Nov 2008 | No Comment | ]
Compare new picks to current holdings - STP, WINS and AXP

Compare new picks to current holdings is another great piece of advice which Klarman mentions and is a stepping stone on most investing paths. Can AXP dislodge STP or GE? Where will I deploy my WINS cash? STP main risk’s are the same as for most solar and tech companies.

Purchases »

[3 Oct 2008 | No Comment | ]

I don’t have time for a write-up now; however, this is a heads up that STP has once again fallen to bargain basement prices. The Fusion Investing Portfolio plans to buy 2,000 shares on Friday 3 October.
You can check my previous articles on Suntech here.
The good: PEG of 0.53, forward P/E of 11.66, dominant low cost solar provider, good margins and return on equity, excellent R&D.
The bad: High debt, earnings not translating to cash flow due to investments in growth.
Just bought 1,000 at 32.50, not the low I was after …

Analysis »

[22 Aug 2008 | 2 Comments | ]

Is Suntech the financier de rigueur for the solar industry?
It sure seems that way.
I have been trawling the internet trying to find details on Suntech’s minority ownership of and loans to a number of their suppliers. I have momentarily given up hope after reading a reference to a Credit Suisse research note on STP. The only comment by the CS analyst not taken directly from the earnings release or conference call was “We raise our DCF-based target price from US$48.0 to US$50.0.”

More on this topic

(What's this?)

Piper Bullish on Suntech (STP) …

Analysis »

[21 Aug 2008 | No Comment | ]

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP)
Suntech Reports Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Great results shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. I’ll write more tomorrow, but from my first look it was a sensational quarter.

Expectations were for $0.32 (.27-.27 range) STP did $0.41 up from $0.25 last year. (GAAP $0.38)
Revenue grew 51.3% to $480.2 million comfortably ahead of the May forecast of $430 million to $440 million. Expectations were for $439M.

Quarter ended PV cell production capacity was 660MW and  is on track to reach 1GW by the …

Analysis »

[14 Aug 2008 | No Comment | ]

I decided to invest some of my profits from selling OHI into buying a trading position in Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP). Back in mid June I flagged that I would wait patiently for STP to come to the value point I wanted…and here it is.
STP has once again fallen to a value point I couldn’t ignore. After a quick refresh of my due diligence I have gone overweight in STP. [Neither OHI nor STP are held in the FI Portfolio] The following notes are my half edited notes …

Analysis »

[15 Jun 2008 | No Comment | ]

I have a full sized position of Suntech (STP) in a personal account. Despite that I was disappointed by the large, 9.7%, rise on Friday. I had been hoping to be able to pick up more STP down around the March lows of $30. I had an alert set at $35 and depending on market conditions would have bought around then. Only time will tell if I’ll get that opportunity now.
As this article highlights Cowen and Co. analyst Rob Stone reiterated his outperform and made the bold call that 2009 …