A look at S&P/ASX All Ordinaries P/E data since 1974.

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) the second largest private passenger insurer in Massachusetts reported Q4 2009 earnings in-line with analysts expectations of $0.93.

The results are better than a quick glance conveys as the headline numbers appear disappointing due to the one off settlement with the Massachusetts Attorney General’s office. Price to book is still under one, but has narrowed to 0.94. Earnings improvement YoY continues to suggest stabilisation of business. 1.3M shares bought back at around the lows of the year.

Robert Shiller and John Campbell initially published on P/E Ratio predicting later real returns in this 1988 paper. In 1996 Shiller followed up the research with this easily digestible paper on the topic. In summary he found that the random walk theory does not look right and that current valuations have a strong predictive ability for future long term returns. Over the short term noise prevents prediction, whereas over the long term, ten years, current valuation levels are predictive of future returns.

As I have said before the voting machine should be used for the short term, the weighing machine for the long term.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) scorched revenue and earnings estimates. Suntech’s Q4 results highlighted a company firing on all cylinders pulling further ahead of their competition.
EPS $0.27, $0.16 ahead of estimates. First half 2010 production already sold out.

Leucadia National Corporation (LUK) reported Q4 2009 result last Friday, click here for Leucadia’s filings.
Long time readers may recall that LUK was my dumb trade of the month last year. I no longer have a position in LUK, but am still interested in the story. For those who haven’t heard of Leucadia, think of it as a mini Berkshire run by two guys just as smart as Warren and Charlie. Leucadia’s Chairman, Ian Cummings, and President Joseph Steinberg have compiled an amazing record since 1978. See this spreadsheet for details of the …

Sandisk jumped $3.53 (12.11%) to a new 52 week closing high of $32.68 after hitting a 52 week high of $32.75 intra-day. The jump was sparked by upgraded revenue and margin guidance, followed by a bevy of analysts upping their estimates.
I’m not one for conspiracies, but it’s very difficult to take Sandisk’s low ball guidance during their earnings release on January 28th and Friday’s raised guidance at face value. Sandisk had a great fourth quarter and blew estimates away. However, due to low ball guidance the stock was heavily sold …

M2 Telecommunications (MTU) reported outstanding first half 2010 results today. Though not quite as outstanding as the headline on the release trumpets “M2 delivers record earnings – up 156%“. Still Vaughan Bowen and company have got a lot to be pleased by, with earnings per share up 86% and EPS adjusted for non-cash amortisation up 118%. Excellent stuff Vaughan, keep up the fantastic work.
Growth was driven by last years two major acquisition, People Telecom and Commander. Regular reader may recall I generally have concerns with growth by acquisition. In this case I have nothing but praise for …

Woolworth’s stock price rolls back. It’s time to take a fresh look at the fresh food people.

BIOTA HOLDINGS LIMITED (BTA) are due to report first half results within the next week or two. There has been considerable coverage on the indicative $32.6M quarterly royalty on the $462 million in Relenza sales by GSK. David Symons wrote an excellent preview of the quarterly royalties which is worth a read. It’s good to see some journalists now have an in-depth understanding of Biota.

With earnings due and $56.7 million in anticipated royalties I decided now was a good time to look back at Biota’s revenue over the last five years.

JB Hi-Fi Limited (JBH) announced 29% growth in profits, yet the stock has been taken out to the woodshed and had 5% flayed off its hide.
Why were investors so disappointed in this Roger Montgomery favourite? Sales increased 23%, profit was up 29% and the dividend was raised a whopping 120%, hardly disapointing figures.
Do investors believe the outgoing CEO, Richard Uechtritz, was worth 5% around $100M of the market cap? The stock fell 5% today after the earnings announcement.
Or was it the falling gross margins? Gross margins fell 26bps due to increased competition and lower margin items.
Or …