Excellent results highlight the growth path.

The ASW elevator pitch:

A challenger to the duopoly of Computer Share and Link Market Services, ASW, has expanded beyond it’s regional foothold in the West. Earnings have grown consistently, guided by stable management/owners. Earning ceiling is not in sight.

Speaking of falling knives how about Biota? This Melbourne based anti-viral company, or I should say small molecule biotech company since their European anti infective acquisitions, had a serious haircut after royalties from their one current marketed product, Relenza, were well below estimates. Punters and analysts alike were disappointed when Relenza royalties of $9.7M fell well short of the expected $35M this quarter.

Elders is hitting new low. As Justin said in the comments a buck now seems likely.

First up the two year chart and then zooming in the last six months. Current management are meant to be good and have a decent strategy to turn Elders around. Operating in a business with trough margins which opens up the possibility of the double play of margin and ratio expansion. Worth looking at.

Here’s a good summary of Chinese bubble and why miners are will head lower, by Roger Montgomery. It’s based around coal due to the current M&A in that area, but does extrapolate to all miners.
In summary, China property bubble bursts, Chinese Government lowers the current 55% contribution to GDP occurring through build-out of infrastructure, demand falls, miners fall.
My view is that secular cycles last longer than most predict and commodity cycles can last twenty years, so I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for the eventual fall to start rather than wasting …

The fourth semiconductor wave has reached it’s turning point. We’re about top go vertical on the s curve. “It has been predicted that humanity is fast approaching an omega point, or singularity.”
I measure the waves in technology by annual spending on semi-conductors, which peaked at $5billion in 1976 (the MainframeWave), $26 billion in 1983 (thePC Wave) and $202 billion in2000 (the Internet Wave). Eachwave peaked 5X to 8X higher than the prior one.

While Headline Group’s past financials are of interest they aren’t much use for predicting their future. HLD are emerging from their chrysalis and may have transformed into a beautiful butterfly. In short they’ve bought 61-64% of Australia’s franchise for ELC and Mothercare and starting the Mothercare roll-out at pace.

My kids love the Men in Black movies. One of their favourite scenes is when Will Smith attends the initial interview for Men in Black. With that in mind here are some of the best of the best of Australian equities. Now it’s time to interview each one and see if any jump out of the box.

A look at S&P/ASX All Ordinaries P/E data since 1974.

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) the second largest private passenger insurer in Massachusetts reported Q4 2009 earnings in-line with analysts expectations of $0.93.

The results are better than a quick glance conveys as the headline numbers appear disappointing due to the one off settlement with the Massachusetts Attorney General’s office. Price to book is still under one, but has narrowed to 0.94. Earnings improvement YoY continues to suggest stabilisation of business. 1.3M shares bought back at around the lows of the year.