Gains in 2009 were not easy. The gains came from gut wrenching buys. It’s lucky I have a rubbish bin beside my desk as I threw up a couple times after buying stocks in late 2008 and early 2009!  Buying when everyone was screaming about the great depression 2.0 was not easy. Buying when the fundamentals were deteriorating so quickly and no floor was in sight was not easy. There was nothing easy about this year.

Anyway moving on, I simply wanted to say a big thank you to all readers and especially to the minority of you who have taken the time to leave your thoughts. Thank you all. I hope you have a wonderful Christmas and a 2010 full of fun, happiness, love and some easy gains.

My hat tip for 2009 goes to Sir John Templeton. His time-tested maxims guided me through the first quarter of 2009. Of Templeton’s 22 maxims, four were of the utmost importance this year.

4. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

5. To put “Maxim 4″ in somewhat different terms, in the stock market the only way to get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling.

6. To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude, even while offering the greatest reward.

7. Bear markets have always been temporary. Share prices turn upward from one to twelve months before the bottom of the business cycle.

Invite others to Google Wave

Google Wave is more fun when you have others to wave with, so please nominate people you would like to add. Keep in mind that this is a preview so it could be a bit rocky at times.

Invitations will not be sent immediately. We have a lot of stamps to lick.

I have six spare invitations. If you want one then leave a comment with your email address.

At first look Wave appears to be missing standard email functionality. Outbound Communication is restricted to Wave users and although the account has an email address it hasn’t received any incoming emails yet.

Working on megawatt machines.

• Cessna wing span produces 230kW
• Gulf Stream 1.3MW
• 747 6MW

How much is 6MW? eSolar’s Sierra Sun Tower produces 5MW of energy supplied to 4,000 homes. Though large coal-fired, nuclear, and hydroelectric power stations can generate a few gigawatts and we need terawatts.

Saul Griffith’s kites tap wind energy

As per Saul’s WWII example, I again say energy will not be our limiting resource. There are too many solutions, there will be too many development and maybe just maybe there will be an awareness about and more efficient use of all resources.

I was sitting in my backyard admiring our Aloe Plicatilis, a fan aloe, when it struck me how 2D in thinking David MacKay was. He was thinking within the box. In fairness I do recall MacKay stressing he based the figures on current technology. Though that’s as helpful as fossil fuel analysts and commentators who estimate reserves based on current consumption.

Back to my backyard. Each leaf of the Aloe was aligned to obtain maximum light and in so doing increased the light capturing surface from 2D into 3D. Solar will go 3D at some point in the future. Though first a considerable amount of our cities and deserts will be covered in 2D solar cells. Plants as it happens have a low overall photosynthetic efficiency of 3 to 6 percent of total solar radiation. [1]

How will 3D solar cells work? Just like a Aloe Plicatilis, long rigid leaves fanning out. Perhaps held together in a flexible web to support many solar aloes in a roof top installation. Software to align the leaves to the sun. We’ll power our personal transport and the majority of our home power needs. Solar forest will be sprout in desserts. Energy will not be our most limiting resource.

Yes, you’re right I’m getting twenty to thirty years ahead of myself, can that make me any money now. Alternative energy is one of THE guaranteed mega waves for the next few decades. Photovoltaic production has been doubling every 2 years, increasing by an average of 48 percent each year since 2002, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy technology.^[5] Healthcare is another mega wave as boomers will vote on mass for excellent healthcare and benefits for their generation.

While researching photosynthesis efficiency for this article I stumbled across this photo, damn, reality is ahead of my thinking! It’s primitive and in twenty years we’ll be laughing at it, but it’s a first step on the path.

The mega cycle will undulate and no one company is guaranteed to succeed. Wind is safer than solar as until micro turbines are perfected wind can’t be commoditised. Solar is already commoditised as companies like Yingli prove jumping from making downpipes or similar to being a solar player. To win in a commoditised industry you want to be low cost, have more advanced research and turn your name into a brand. Think Intel Inside.

On the upside silicon constraints are no longer a problem and more countries are likely to start subsidies, plus the elusive grid parity is probably only two years away.

Fossil Energy

If major economies dip in late 2010 or 2011 then oil and alternative energy stocks could fall. That would be a good time to buy both. Be patient, don’t buy too soon on the dip.

Solar Companies

The solar industry aims to provide half of all new U.S. electricity generation by 2025. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). Our solar power future: The U.S. photovoltaics industry roadmap through 2030 and beyond.

• First Solar (FSLR)
• SunPower Corporation (SPWRA)
• Suntech Power Holding Ltd. (STP)
• JA Solar (JASO)
• Nano Solar
• Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE)
• China Sunergy (CSUN)
• LDK Solar (LDK)
• Solarfun (SOLF)

Wind Companies

• General Electric
• Vestas Wind Power Systems
• Small Canadian Wind Sensing Firm, Catch the Wind

If a mild irritation is close to death then I came close. I really don’t want to spray out in my shed. That’s where a lot of our pets live. Like this gecko.

And scores of daddy long legs and other small brown spiders which in return for board they eat the mossies, flies and moths. Stuff I don’t like. I think the gecko is the top of the food chain, but the white tail is the only one that has a chance at giving me more than a fright.

So while I’m currently on the Aussie, aussie, aussie cheer team and enjoying life here in Australia, white tailed spiders ensure it’s not all beer and skittles. White tail, I will see your poison with my own. The CSIRO say “Kill or evict any [White-tailed] spiders seen wandering inside the house at night.“

Bulls need a bounce off the 100 SMA which is around the lows of this morning, while bears will be rooting for a break of the neckline at around 4500. I’m comfortable with my cash levels and most of the Australian equities we own.

Prana stands out as a concern. Current management have been unable to clinch a deal despite excellent PIIa results and academic backing. It seems absurd that a company with the third most clinically advanced AD compound, left that compound on the bench for eighteen months while management tried and failed to flog rights for it. Absurd! Management must be hoping P11b results will be so good that they’ll get twice as much for PBT2, as that would make up for the diabolical dilution from the delay. On the upside it is the most likely stock I own to do five to ten bags over the next eighteen months. Surely there is some top notch pharma/biotech executive in the world who would leap at the chance to play deal maker on a potential mega blockbuster.

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Have the repeaters of that delusion ever been into a book shop? There are scores of manuals on motherhood. When coined the phase was accurate and insightful, now it’s borderline ignorant. If you want to be a better parent then read the manual. Instinct, you must be kidding ANZ.

If you want one tip then speak to your kids as you’d like them to speak to others and like you wish to be spoken to. As someone said do unto others as you’d have them do unto you.

http://www.amazon.com/Great-Books-on-Motherhood/lm/R28J31B1N9VGTK

The first sentence, after the bold pronouncement that there are no manuals for motherhood, finally puts to bed learned vs innate arguments. According to the ANZ instinct is the answer. If only they were right, but sadly they’re way off base. I struggle to give instinct 20%.  We are programmed from birth. Everything we learn from observation, education, interactions and so on alters our learned behaviour and our perception.

Come on ANZ stop permeating myths throughout our society for the sake of your marketing.

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