You can’t see the future through a rearview mirror.

From the perspective of mean reversion, fat tails help to create some of the best opportunities. That is to say, fat tails often create fat pitches.

Look at companies as businesses with opportunities and risks and try to understand why their solvency, liquidity, profitability, valuation and activity ratios are as they are. To do that you need the story.

The Inefficient Stock Market What Pays Off and Why is an insightful look at market inefficiencies and how investors can profit via expected return factor models.

I have subscribed to dozens of investment newsletters and sites over the years and used to read newspapers. What follows are my opinions based on past experience, the publications mentioned may have changed since I subscribed.

Withour Hot Air, Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly letter, Security Analysis and New Scientist.

In this review of Finding Alpha: The Search for Alpha When Risk and Return Break Down by Eric Falkenstein, David Merkel summarises with words I’ve often penned.
What this all says to me is that investors are too hopeful. They look for the big wins and ignore smaller ways to make extra money. They swing for the fences and get an “out,” rather than blooping singles with some regularity. I like blooping singles with regularity.
via Merkel on Falkenstein’s ‘Finding Alpha: When Risk and Return Break Down’ — Seeking Alpha.
OK, I’ve never …

Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many Shall fall that are now in honor

Scribd is a document sharing website. It is often described as a YouTube for documents and like YouTube the user posted documents are both plentiful and sometimes infringe on copyright. Here are some of my favourites.

Lessons and Ideas from Benjamin Graham, The Origin of Wealth. The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years. Reinvesting when Terrified