Commentary »

[8 Jul 2010 | No Comment | ]
Sanofi-Aventis on the Prowl

SNY appears on the following screens:
- Growth/Value Investor Strong Interest. Based on analysis of the book by James P O’Shaughnessy
- Value Investor Strong Interest. Based on analysis of the book by Benjamin Graham
- P/E Growth Investor Strong Interest. Based on analysis of the book by Peter Lynch

Commentary »

[7 Jul 2010 | No Comment | ]
Southern Cross Equities and Prana Biotech

On 30 Sept 2009 Southern Cross Equities (SCE) issued a bullish recommendation of Prana with a 12 month target of $1.10, Prana was then at $0.23.
SCE received 3.5M three year $0.30 options for services rendered.
What was the purpose of that ‘research’ report? Was it to secure funding from BAM Capital? Who around that time took a substantial stake of 30M shares and then played some very unusual ‘games’ which a suspicious person may have concluded looked manipulative.
Now SCE get to run a private placement to dilute existing shareholders by 100%. How …

Analysis »

[28 Jun 2010 | 2 Comments | ]
The Battle for Distributed Power – Ceres Power vs Ceramic Fuel Cells

Ceres Power and Ceramic Fuel Cells are the two leading competitors in small scale combined heat and power (CHP) products. Both are targeting the residential market in Europe and have partnerships with German manufacturers and European gas suppliers. Both use technology based on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) and if you believe their respective marketing both are the leading company in this niche area. So who is the leader and who is the pretender?

Review »

[25 Jun 2010 | 2 Comments | ]
The Inefficient Stock Market

The Inefficient Stock Market What Pays Off and Why is an insightful look at market inefficiencies and how investors can profit via expected return factor models.

Analysis, Philosophy »

[22 Jun 2010 | 4 Comments | ]

For a few years now I’ve been perplexed by how intelligent people can believe in the efficient market hypothesis and the capital asset pricing model. My ideas are still percolating, though I believe focus is one of the main dividers in our beliefs. I spend my days looking at individual trees, looking for market inefficiencies and focusing on them. While believers of EMH and CAPM spend their days looking at the forest. They don’t see the individual trees and market inefficiencies as the forest obscures the mis-pricing.
Whose right and whose wrong? Come on, you know I don’t buy …

Commentary, Investing Insights »

[19 Jun 2010 | No Comment | ]

The pile of documents on my desk was out of control, so it was time for a throw out. Here’s a few of the investing and financial gems I’m throwing out, but want to keep links too.
From Grantham to Klarman on to Gross and Zweig. Articles that I can’t part with.

Analysis »

[18 Jun 2010 | 5 Comments | ]

Thanks to Peter for pointing Advanced Share’s profit upgrade.
Great news. Quality, focused board. Owner focused company driven by founding owner.

Final dividend upped from an anticipated 1.25 to 1.8c after a 75% jump in pretax profit to $2.2M for 2010.

Sales up, increased trading, new clients, cost focus with a verifiable claim of expanding margins. Confident of future growth and profitability.

Analysis »

[18 Jun 2010 | 6 Comments | ]
Why BP Should be in your Portfolio or on your Watchlist

Investors should have already run their ruler over BP. There are a lot of good investors already long, are you among them? I’m not. I see BP as good value right now, but am prepared to wait and see if I get outrageously good value. An easy pitch with bases loaded.

Commentary, Featured »

[16 Jun 2010 | No Comment | ]
Tax Time Do’s and Don’ts

Minimise your personal debt.

Analysis »

[9 Jun 2010 | 4 Comments | ]
Telstra – Stock Market Returns Inverted

The Australian stock market historically returns around 13%, comprised of roughly 10% capital growth and 3% dividends. The current yield on Telstra inverts those returns, with over a 10% after tax dividend and 3% growth.

Telecommunications is a capital intensive business. Telstra are fighting increasing competition, increasing interest rates, decreasing returns on their defined benefits fund and an insane government at a time of generational change in their business. Projecting consistent earnings into the future for a company faced with so many issues is hazardous. However, Telstra do have a very strong brand and have invested heavily in their transformation project.