Excellent post here at Data Diary on the importance of capital, especially point 4, “Always assume the worst”.
As I’ve said many times, focus on the downside and let the upside take care of itself. Bruce Berkowitz always tries to figure out what could break his investments, from memory he even hires outsiders to try and disprove his investment ideas. Of course with St Joe’s Berkowitz had David Einhorn to do that for free! Another of my favourite saying that fits with this meme  is, capital is scare while opportunities are plentiful.
While Data Diary’s number one tip, …

Non-dilutive funding grant awarded by BARDA for development of Inavir is a game changer for Biota and substantially de-risks the company. The funding places a higher floor under Biota’s value and increases the probability of high value eventuating. Although Inavir will not be commercialised for 5-6 years, the contract is cost plus, royalties will continue from Inavir in Japan and Relenza world wide and the rest of Biota’s pipeline continues to progress. Good management could unlock substantial value for shareholders in the years ahead.

The Fusion Superannuation Fund is up 14% year to date, thanks in the main to strong performance by M2 Telecommunications and Biota. I have been increasing the funds cash position and now hold 12.4% in cash. Cash is an attractive option in Australia where safe 6% returns are easily available. The sales have predominately been in banks, ANZ was first out the door followed by Westpac.

Value guys have been all over Biota for a few years now, in that time the shorter time-framed technicians and mo-mo players have been in and out. Now with the 50 DMA crossing over the 100DMA  Biota appears to be breaking out of a six month consolidation channel. RSI approaching 80. All backed by a good fundamental story with multiple possible near catalysts within the year. More soon. Long Biota.

It appears Biota also caught the eye of the Australian Securities Exchange. Here is Biota’s response to an ASX speeding ticket. Nothing to …

Is Biota being manipulated by evil trading bots wielding their retail investor devouring trading algorithms.

Speaking of falling knives how about Biota? This Melbourne based anti-viral company, or I should say small molecule biotech company since their European anti infective acquisitions, had a serious haircut after royalties from their one current marketed product, Relenza, were well below estimates. Punters and analysts alike were disappointed when Relenza royalties of $9.7M fell well short of the expected $35M this quarter.

BIOTA HOLDINGS LIMITED (BTA) are due to report first half results within the next week or two. There has been considerable coverage on the indicative $32.6M quarterly royalty on the $462 million in Relenza sales by GSK. David Symons wrote an excellent preview of the quarterly royalties which is worth a read. It’s good to see some journalists now have an in-depth understanding of Biota.

With earnings due and $56.7 million in anticipated royalties I decided now was a good time to look back at Biota’s revenue over the last five years.

Biota is down to where the price last intersected with value. There’s strong technical support around $2 tying in nicely with the fundies. Biota’s share price just experienced a pandemic spike sending the price twelve months or more into its future. The rumor/fact of Governments selling flu vaccines has been stretched to fear about orders for the 190 million annual Relenza production GSK has committed to. From afar GSK’s Witty appears to be a sharp operator and all the noise and orders found on the net point to Relenza getting …

Is the one I’m currently buying.

More later, but thought this was certainly a moment to celebrate.
From the horses mouth, Biota included in S&P / ASX200 and Biota Announcement at ASX.
On a down day Biota is trading up 5% to $3.08 down from the day’s high thus far of $3.15.
Biota’s CEO, Peter Cook, has stated a couple times he would like larger, less speculative (my words), institutional holders. With the large international trade the other day and now inclusion in the XJO, it appears Mr Cook’s wish has been granted.
Inclusion in the XJO should result in …