BIOTA HOLDINGS LIMITED (BTA) are due to report first half results within the next week or two. There has been considerable coverage on the indicative $32.6M quarterly royalty on the $462 million in Relenza sales by GSK. David Symons wrote an excellent preview of the quarterly royalties which is worth a read. It’s good to see some journalists now have an in-depth understanding of Biota.

With earnings due and $56.7 million in anticipated royalties I decided now was a good time to look back at Biota’s revenue over the last five years.

Biota is down to where the price last intersected with value. There’s strong technical support around $2 tying in nicely with the fundies. Biota’s share price just experienced a pandemic spike sending the price twelve months or more into its future. The rumor/fact of Governments selling flu vaccines has been stretched to fear about orders for the 190 million annual Relenza production GSK has committed to. From afar GSK’s Witty appears to be a sharp operator and all the noise and orders found on the net point to Relenza getting …

Is the one I’m currently buying.

More later, but thought this was certainly a moment to celebrate.
From the horses mouth, Biota included in S&P / ASX200 and Biota Announcement at ASX.
On a down day Biota is trading up 5% to $3.08 down from the day’s high thus far of $3.15.
Biota’s CEO, Peter Cook, has stated a couple times he would like larger, less speculative (my words), institutional holders. With the large international trade the other day and now inclusion in the XJO, it appears Mr Cook’s wish has been granted.
Inclusion in the XJO should result in …

If you haven’t checked out the cool cell size visualisation tool I linked the other day, then this is your reminder. [Use the slider Luke, use the slider...the one at the bottom of the linked page.]
Plus it’s great to see Biota two primary targets in the antiviral world, the influenza virus and rhinovirus.

Biota’s 2009 AGM
Summaries of the AGM were posted on Hot Copper [subscription required]. I’ve posted some snips at the bottom.
Extra bits I noted

The CEO, Peter Cook, side stepped a question on the patent expiration date of Lani. He alluded to that …

The AGM is tomorrow, Thursday Nov 12.  100 St Kilda Rd 10.00am pdf
It will be good to see the new Chairman in action. Plus the crowd should be in a jollier mood. An update on pipeline, negotiations, the business and forecasts would be good.
Hunter Hall Selling
I read at least one comment on the timing of Hunter Hall selling down and announcing. Here is the relevant section. HHL reduced their Biota holding from 13.13% to 12.10% over a five week period and then reported due to 1b.
Over time we can expect …

Relenza sales were £182 million reflecting continued orders from Governments for pandemic stockpiling. That’s around $24M in royalties for Biota. Production increases on target for 190m by end of 2009.

£45M in US
£38 in Europe
£99 RoW via GSK announcement
Royalties owing to Biota Holdings (BTA) from GSK’s Relenza sales of $23M, narrowly beating consensus estimates.

Production increases on target for 190m by end of 2009. Waiting confirmation from conference call.

My royalty prediction $19M – $30M with higher more likely than lower. Target: 15*20= 300M *.07 = $21M

My kids started back in school yesterday and I’ve ‘celebrated’ by diving into phase two of our taxes. This is the one time of the year I seriously think about simplifying our finances. Our discretionary trust and personal taxes are so frigging complicated my brain feels like its going to explode. After two days solid work I’ve finished the draft preparation of all three tax returns and the financial statements for our trust.

I’ve been accepted into The University of Melbourne Masters of Applied Finance at the Melbourne Graduate School of Management, hence back to school squared. I start in Semester 1 2010 and am really looking forward to going back to University.

I enjoyed reading this article on Biota by John Hempton.

Daybagger definition and a quick comment or two on Biota, Prana and MMC Contrarian.