In general I try to rein in my natural optimism when posting about companies I own. I prefer to focus on the downside and let the upside take care of itself. I do try to provide balanced input and avoid hyperbole. But not today. For once I want to unleash my wildest optimism and ride my unbridled enthusiasm to a heady conclusion.

Portfolio Manager Steven Glass discusses Hunter Hall’s investment in Biota and the implication of swine flu.
A few key points from the video:

Releanza is one of two antivirals to treat HINI (swine flu)
If HINI mixes with seasonal flu which has resistance to Tamiflu then there is only one antiviral left, Biota’s Relenza.
LANI is main drug in pipeline. Finished PIII is Japan [results out soon]. One puff. [HRV is the other main drug in Biota's pipeline.]
Should have $85M cash as of June 30. [Biota had $55.4 cash at December]
Expect return of cash via …

I started to write the following reply to a question on the Hot Copper disccusion board. As it became longer than I intended I decided to post it here.
It seems I have not made my position clear, so perhaps a little clarification is in order. I have a sizable investment in Biota, which I bought around 40 cents when I was analysing Biota on this site. I have not sold any shares. I do not care where the share price in today, tomorrow or next week. When I see a …

Biota Bulls are excited over the following statement in Daiichi Sankyo’s 2008 Fiscal results published today. Fist things first, here are the two important announcements by Biota on CS-8958, a long-acting neuraminidase inhibitor, LANI for short.

I read this comment on a forum this morning:
anyone selling and if so why? if it hits my original price from a few years ago i’d be tempted. $1.82
This is a classic example of anchoring, which is one of the most wealth destructive behavioral problems in investing. The market does not care what you paid and nor should you. Though the poster is not alone and that is why price support and resistance is real and meaningful.
I guess I better join the mass hysteria and go buy an anti-viral mask …

Biota Holdings Limited (ASX:BTA) today announced that it had received notification from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) that Relenza sales were $462 million and indicative royalties were $32.3 million, for the three months ended 31 March 2009.

Professor Damodaran suggests an option pricing model for patents and similar intangibles with possible future cash flows. I find this detailed approach to valuation of intellectual interest, but not of great investing interest. If I have to value a company using option pricing then I know I don’t have large enough margin of safety.

Fundamental and technical analysis of the Australian Biotechnology company Biota Holding highlights how looking through several lens can improve your investing results.
The following chart is a great example of why you should consider adding moving averages to your investing toolkit. It is also a great example of why you should not rely solely on technicals.

I just read the latest Gleason Report and thought it may be time to catch up on some suggestions I’ve made recently. Many people, especially North American readers will find the Gleason Report confronting, as he discusses the end of an empire, fiat money and a global redistribution of wealth.

This has been a great week in the markets for the discretionary trust and super fund that I manage. Netflix, CV Therapeutics and now Biota have all had strong moves due to earnings, takeover and $18 Million Relenza royalties for Biota.