Robert Shiller and John Campbell initially published on P/E Ratio predicting later real returns in this 1988 paper. In 1996 Shiller followed up the research with this easily digestible paper on the topic. In summary he found that the random walk theory does not look right and that current valuations have a strong predictive ability for future long term returns. Over the short term noise prevents prediction, whereas over the long term, ten years, current valuation levels are predictive of future returns.

As I have said before the voting machine should be used for the short term, the weighing machine for the long term.

This excellent article exemplifies a style of fusion investing, the fusion of business momentum and value.

Woolworth’s stock price rolls back. It’s time to take a fresh look at the fresh food people.

How do you make $1million in the stock market?

Lynch said buy what you know. There was no company I knew better than SAP.

Catch the Wind’s Vindicator has billion dollar blockbuster potential.

Green Mountain was a momentum darling in 2009. After a flat 2008, its shares took off in early 2009 and closed the year up an eye popping 216% at $81.47. It appears the stock has knocked back a few too many K-cups and is now close to peaking on the empty energy of a caffeine fueled run. GMCR looks like a classic case of what goes up must come down. Throw in K-cups fad like nature and GMCR longs appear to be veering towards a nasty cliff.

Keurig brewers and the K-Cup are Green Mountain’s business and the growth of both has been explosive, but at best that growth will moderate if not evaporate.

Is the one I’m currently buying.

With new bi carb capacity now online and all but accounted for its time to see the cash flow and earnings pop.

Flexibility in the Market is the secret to market timing.