The Inefficient Stock Market What Pays Off and Why is an insightful look at market inefficiencies and how investors can profit via expected return factor models.

For a few years now I’ve been perplexed by how intelligent people can believe in the efficient market hypothesis and the capital asset pricing model. My ideas are still percolating, though I believe focus is one of the main dividers in our beliefs. I spend my days looking at individual trees, looking for market inefficiencies and focusing on them. While believers of EMH and CAPM spend their days looking at the forest. They don’t see the individual trees and market inefficiencies as the forest obscures the mis-pricing.
Whose right and whose wrong? Come on, you know I don’t buy …

But it ain’t gonna do you no good. No matter how much you want the market to do something it is not going to do you any good.
Ten Reasons why the market won’t capitulate

Flexibility in the Market is the secret to market timing.

I’m still finding it difficult to get up to speed on investing in Australia and remain more in tune with what is going on in US markets. This Zacks video has some views that mirror my own. [It amazing the difference a day can make. I wrote this post yesterday and now here we are above psychological barrier 10,000 after a strong rise fueled by rising retail sales and strong earnings from Intel and JPMorgan Chase & Co.]

This earnings season is a reality check. We need to see …

Maybe it was too little sleep, maybe it’s my time of the month, but for whatever reason I feel like a grumpy old man today. Perhaps that’s why rather than celebrate the surreal rise of Australian and North American indices I am becoming fearful.

When I look at this chart of the S&P ASX20 as a proxy for the Australian market, rather than seeing a friend swinging me ever higher I see a viper poised to strike. I look at companies in my portfolio and ponder what to sell. Then a …

Rambling thoughts on margin, market timing and investing secrets. All wrapped up in a transparent veneer of self indulgence.

I am a market timer. However, I am not stupid enough to think I can time it with any accuracy. I am not arrogant enough to think I can predict the bottom. So I buy. I buy most comfortably on the way down, I am getting slightly better at not buying too early, but only slightly as my WM and IMB buys attest to.

Last week I wrote about my ten favourite fund managers letters. Writing about those letters made me realise how reliant I have become on RSS feeds and email. One of my favorites from that list don’t offer an RSS or email option. Consequently a month can fly past before I remember to check the site.
Well no more I say! To ensure I read the invaluable Hussman Funds Weekly Market Comment and to provide it via RSS feed and hopefully via email, I will link John P Hussman’s weekly comments here.
This …

I often see this confusion in fundamental investors, how can you call a bottom? The thing is you can’t. Technical investors know that and never proclaim they can. Fusion investors also know they can’t time market bottoms, but they also know they can increase their chances of getting close to the bottom by combining fundamental and technical analysis in a mixing bowl along with some behavioral finance. Fusion analysts know they don’t have to nail the bottom, to outperform they simply buy at prices lower than 50% of other market …